US Job Market Shows Signs of Recovery Ahead of Rate Decision; ADP Reports Average Weekly Job Gains of 4,750 in Latest 4-Week Period

The U.S. private sector employment is showing signs of recovery. The latest data from Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) on December 9 revealed that the private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, marking an end to four consecutive weeks of job losses and providing a positive signal for the recently sluggish labor market.

This data aligns with the rare sharp decline in initial jobless claims reported the previous week, though some analysts caution that the Thanksgiving holiday may have caused short-term distortions. However, it remains too early to conclude that the "low layoffs, low hiring" trend has ended. ADP's previous report showed a significant loss of 120,000 jobs among small businesses, highlighting persistent structural pressures in the labor market.

Following the release of the data, futures for the three major U.S. stock indices turned lower.

**Labor Market: Lagging Data and Mixed Signals** The latest figures present a complex picture of the U.S. labor market, with official statistics showing both lags and contradictions that complicate trend analysis. The September nonfarm payrolls report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Due to the earlier government shutdown, the supplemental employment reports for October and November will be delayed until next Tuesday.

The current hiring slowdown reflects dual pressures: cyclical cooling in demand and structural tightening in supply, the latter linked to labor shortages caused by stricter immigration policies. Some economists warn that if the unemployment rate continues to rise beyond a critical threshold, it could trigger a negative feedback loop by dampening consumer spending, further exacerbating labor market risks.

However, historically, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, and some fundamental economic indicators still show resilience. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce another rate cut this Wednesday. If monetary policy transmission proves effective, it may provide some cushion for the labor market and mitigate short-term volatility. Overall, the job market remains in a state of uncertainty, characterized by "lagging data, mixed signals, and policy intervention."