Guosheng Securities issued a research report expressing optimism about ROBOSENSE's (02498) LiDAR product order demand and commercialization potential. The firm projects total revenue for 2025-2027 to reach RMB2.3/3.5/4.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 37%/56%/24%, with non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at -RMB172 million/RMB163 million/RMB366 million respectively. Based on 6x 2026e P/S, the bank assigns ROBOSENSE a target market capitalization of approximately RMB21.14 billion, equivalent to a HK$50 target price, reaffirming its "Buy" rating.
Key highlights from Guosheng Securities' analysis include:
**ROBOSENSE's Q3 2025 Performance** The company shipped 186,000 LiDAR units in Q3 2025, up 34.0% YoY. This includes approximately 150,000 ADAS LiDAR units (+14.3% YoY) and 36,000 robotics LiDAR units (+393.1% YoY). Quarterly revenue reached RMB410 million, comprising RMB390 million from products, RMB10 million from solutions, and RMB8 million from services. Gross margin for products stood at 23.9%, with automotive and robotics segments at 18.1% and 37.2% respectively.
**ADAS LiDAR Progress** 1) Domestic Market: The EM platform launched in 2025 has secured design wins for 56 vehicle models from 13 automakers. The EMX model accounts for 49 of these design wins, with mass production expected in 2026. The EM4 model is already deployed on Zeekr 9X and IM vehicles, becoming a core configuration for L3 autonomous driving. Recent new design wins include models from leading NEV makers and SUV/pickup truck manufacturers. 2) International Expansion: Partnerships with automakers in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America continue to advance, with projects expected to generate revenue within 1-3 years, gradually increasing overseas revenue contribution.
**Robotics and Other LiDAR Applications** For lawn mowing robots, the E1R and Airy products address complex boundary recognition needs. In urban delivery, the company collaborates with 90% of global industry leaders using its EMX, E1R and Fairy products. For Robotaxi, ROBOSENSE partnered with Didi for next-generation vehicles adopting a 10-LiDAR-per-vehicle solution. North American clients plan to expand fleets by end-2025, accelerating EM4 and E1 mass production.
**AC Series Unveils Long-Term Growth Potential** The Active Camera 2 launched at October's IROS conference integrates dTOF, RGB stereo vision and IMU into a single sensor system - the industry's first such solution. Capable of providing hardware-level fused 3D spatial perception and 6-DOF motion data for robotic operations, it was selected by Yole Group as the sole representative case for humanoid robot fusion perception solutions.
**Risk Factors** include potential shifts in autonomous sensor technology routes, in-house development by key clients, stronger-than-expected pricing pressure from downstream customers, and forecasting inaccuracies.
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