Abstract
First Solar will report results on October 29, 2026 Post-Mkt; this preview summarizes consensus revenue, margins, net profit, adjusted EPS, last quarter performance, and the majority institutional stance for the upcoming print.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 1.29 billion US dollars, an EBIT estimate of 500.71 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 4.66, with year-over-year trajectories of -17.57% for revenue, 1.33% for EBIT, and 9.49% for adjusted EPS; the prior report implied a continued high gross profit margin profile, though no explicit consensus gross margin is available. Company-level forecasts indicate mixed momentum, with estimated year-over-year net performance improvement despite a softer top line, and no explicit market consensus for GAAP net margin. The main business remains thin-film CdTe module manufacturing and sales, with shipment timing and ASP discipline as primary swing factors; the most promising segment is utility-scale module deliveries, which in the last quarter generated 1.06 billion US dollars and faced a -3.74% year-over-year comparison.
Last Quarter Review
First Solar’s last quarter delivered revenue of 1.06 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 57.28%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 423.00 million US dollars with a net profit margin of 40.01%, and adjusted EPS of 3.92, with year-over-year growth of 23.27% for adjusted EPS and -3.74% for revenue. A key highlight was strong margin execution, reflected in gross margin above 57% and net profitability that improved sequentially, with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 21.91%. Main business cadence centered on CdTe module design, manufacturing, and sales at 1.06 billion US dollars revenue, against a -3.74% year-over-year base, with mix and pricing supporting profitability.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Utility-scale CdTe modules
The core driver is the shipment and pricing cadence of thin-film CdTe modules for utility-scale projects. Revenue is modeled at 1.29 billion US dollars, with a projected year-over-year decrease of 17.57% driven by delivery phasing and a tougher comparison period in selected geographies. Margin resilience is expected to remain a focus after last quarter’s 57.28% gross margin, supported by manufacturing cost roadmaps, mix management, and contractual pass-throughs, though mix shifts and timing of recognized revenue can widen the outcome range. Net profitability may remain robust relative to peers due to cost-position advantages, even as revenue volatility underscores the importance of backlog conversion and supply chain execution.
Most promising business: Backlog-driven utility deliveries
The utility-scale delivery pipeline is positioned as the strongest near-term contributor, with last quarter’s 1.06 billion US dollars revenue providing the base and a structurally improving adjusted EPS outlook of 9.49% year-over-year for the current quarter. Incremental earnings leverage reflects continued manufacturing efficiency and potential IRA-related domestic advantages, which can mitigate revenue softness tied to delivery timing. Unit ASP stability and disciplined contract structures provide a buffer against commodity and logistics variability, supporting EBIT stability at an estimated 1.33% year-over-year increase.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter
Stock performance will hinge on whether margins track close to last quarter’s levels and on management commentary regarding delivery schedules into late 2026 and 2027. Any indication of backlog conversion slippage or ASP pressure could reset revenue expectations, while confirmation of cost-down progress and domestic capacity ramp milestones would support the EPS trajectory guided by the 4.66 estimate. Investors will also parse visibility into capacity additions, contract mix between US and international deliveries, and any updates on balance-of-year shipment timing that could narrow or widen the revenue range.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent institutional commentary leans bullish, with the predominant view emphasizing durable margin structure and cost advantages despite projected revenue volatility this quarter. Several well-known institutions highlight that the estimated 4.66 adjusted EPS and 500.71 million US dollars EBIT imply resilient profitability against a forecast 17.57% revenue decline, arguing that structural cost advantages and contracted backlog support the case for sustained earnings power. The majority analysis points to shipment timing as the central variable for reported revenue, while profitability remains anchored by manufacturing efficiency, favorable contract terms, and domestic policy support; this stance underscores a preference for monitoring gross margin and backlog conversion over short-term top-line fluctuations.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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