Goldman Sachs released a research report on September 7, featuring Li Yanguo, founder of Iceberg Index, as the second speaker in its 2026 China Property Expert Conference Call series. Iceberg Index operates a digital analytics system based on second-hand home transaction prices and volumes across approximately 70/40 cities, utilizing leading indicators to provide timely reflection and prediction of property market price and volume trends.
After entering August, the month-over-month decline in second-hand home prices across most cities widened once again. However, the first week of September saw a significant rebound in transaction volumes, marking a positive start to the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Li Yanguo maintains a constructive outlook on transaction volumes for the fourth quarter of 2026, anticipating they will exceed year-ago levels. Nonetheless, with rising new listing supply, prices may edge weaker, with greater risks concentrated in the higher-end segments of second-tier cities.
Looking ahead to 2027, if transaction activity continues to outpace new listings and this trend extends into the spring sales season of next year, Shanghai is expected to pioneer a comprehensive price recovery, potentially achieving cumulative price gains of 6% to 12% by the end of 2027. Shenzhen is likely to follow suit, while most core cities are expected to stabilize around the end of next year. Suzhou and Hefei have already shown early signs of stabilization, and certain lower-tier cities in central and western regions are also experiencing month-over-month price improvements. Cities such as Xuzhou are witnessing notably better transaction volume trends.
Regarding the policy shift toward presale-to-completed-home sales announced on August 28, Li believes the short-term impact is not pronounced. However, he anticipates that by reducing future new supply, this policy could provide market support during the 2027-2028 period.
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