CICC Lowers MINISO Price Target to HKD 32.4, Maintains Outperform Rating

CICC has released a research report maintaining an "Outperform" rating on MINISO Group Holding Limited (also known as MNSO) while lowering its price targets by 17% and 18% to HKD 32.4 and USD 16.7, respectively, based on an 11x multiple of the 2026 adjusted P/E ratio.

CICC noted that MINISO's preliminary announcement indicated an adjusted net profit for the first half of the year, excluding foreign exchange gains/losses, would decline by 1% to 3% year-on-year, falling short of the bank's expectations. The company forecasts revenue of RMB 11.45 billion to RMB 11.55 billion, representing a 22% to 23% year-on-year increase. Profit for the period is expected to be between RMB 940 million and RMB 960 million, up 4% to 6% year-on-year. This corresponds to second-quarter revenue of RMB 5.76 billion to RMB 5.86 billion, a 16% to 18% annual increase, with a net loss of RMB 290 million to RMB 310 million for the period. The adjusted net profit for the first half, excluding foreign exchange impact, is estimated at RMB 1.21 billion to RMB 1.23 billion, down 1% to 3% year-on-year.

The bank projects that the company's second-quarter gross margin will decline year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of revenue from the higher-margin overseas business and an increase in domestic inventory optimization initiatives and innovative business segments. Selling expense ratios are expected to rise year-on-year, driven by increased direct-store-related costs and marketing expenses. On the non-operating front, investments in an AI company led to a loss of RMB 600 million in the second quarter, while the consolidation of Yonghui contributed a loss of RMB 20 million. Net foreign exchange losses amounted to RMB 60 million, and combined with fair value changes on equity-linked securities and redeemable preferred shares, the company swung to a loss for the period. CICC is maintaining its 2026/2027 adjusted net profit forecasts of RMB 3.1 billion and RMB 3.5 billion, respectively, pending further guidance from the company's interim results.