On November 11, 2025, domestic futures contracts opened mostly higher in the morning session. Shanghai silver led gains, rising over 3%, followed by lithium carbonate and Shanghai gold, both up more than 2%. European container shipping and soda ash climbed nearly 2%, while caustic soda and pulp gained over 1%. Dorian LPG, rubber, rapeseed oil, and butadiene rubber edged up nearly 1%. On the downside, rapeseed meal and glass dipped close to 1%.
A research report from Guoyuan Futures on November 11 highlighted that the precious metals market is influenced by intertwined macro and industrial factors, maintaining a broadly firm and volatile trend. Macro-wise, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown crisis—approaching a historic duration—has raised socio-economic concerns due to halted welfare funding, while corporate layoffs hit post-pandemic highs, cooling the labor market and boosting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the Fed remains divided over December rate-cut prospects, with some officials advocating further easing while others warn of sticky inflation. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan cautioned about persistent inflation and delayed tariff policy impacts, amplifying policy uncertainty and market volatility. However, the dollar's modest strength has limited pressure on precious metals.
On the industrial side, COMEX gold and silver inventories declined sequentially, signaling steady physical demand. SPDR gold ETF holdings saw a slight uptick, while SLV silver ETF holdings dipped. Domestic Shanghai gold and silver futures open interest also fell, reflecting intensified market positioning but sustained liquidity. Overall, macro避险 demand and inflation hedging are counterbalancing policy divergence, likely keeping precious metals range-bound with a bullish bias in the near term. Key monitors include the U.S. shutdown developments, inflation data, and Fed policy signals.
(Content and views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.)
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