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Rebar: Yesterday, the rebar market fluctuated within a narrow range. By the close of the day session, the rebar 2701 contract settled at 3,113 yuan per tonne, down 1 yuan from the previous settlement, a decline of 0.03%, with open interest increasing by 17,300 lots. Spot prices remained largely stable while trading volumes softened. The price of ordinary square billet in Qian'an, Tangshan, held steady at 3,010 yuan per tonne, while the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market remained unchanged at 3,160 yuan per tonne. Nationwide construction material transaction volumes reached 93,400 tonnes. According to Mysteel statistics, during the current period (September 15-21), China's total steel export shipments amounted to 2.8567 million tonnes, up 128,700 tonnes or 4.7% week-on-week, and up 420,800 tonnes or 17.3% year-on-year. Due to strong pre-holiday port demand for steel, shipment volumes continued to rise this week. Looking at monthly data, shipment volumes in the first three weeks of September remained at relatively high levels, with monthly shipments likely to sustain growth both sequentially and annually. Sustained high steel exports have helped alleviate some domestic supply pressure. As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, end-users have shown increased stocking enthusiasm, and rebar inventories have declined noticeably recently, with earlier high inventory pressure being significantly absorbed. However, demand for hot-rolled coils from downstream sectors remains weak, and inventory pressure there is relatively high. In the near term, the rebar market is expected to continue its narrow-range fluctuation.
Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract i2701 edged up slightly. By the close of the day session, it settled at 712 yuan per tonne, up 4 yuan from the previous settlement, a gain of 0.56%, with trading volume of 304,900 lots and open interest declining by 31,200 lots. Port spot prices edged up, with PB fines at 60.8% iron content in Rizhao rising 1 yuan to 675 yuan, and Cargill fines rising 7 yuan to 850 yuan. Supply conditions remain broadly ample, with Australian shipments climbing above 21 million tonnes. Major miners have maintained steady discharge rates, and while arrivals have fluctuated slightly, they remain at elevated levels, meaning supply pressure has not seen meaningful relief. On the demand side, hot metal output has ticked up modestly from low levels, but steel mill profitability remains at historical lows, limiting incentives for production resumption. Raw material procurement stays cautious, focused on just-in-time replenishment. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow band.
Coking Coal: Yesterday, the coking coal market declined. By the close of the day session, the coking coal 2701 contract settled at 1,503 yuan per tonne, down 15.5 yuan, a decline of 1.02%, with open interest falling by 7,353 lots. In the spot market, primary coking coal from Jiexiu (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) held steady at 2,230 yuan per tonne. At the Ganqimaodu border port, Mongolian No.5 raw coal rose 35 yuan to 1,670 yuan per tonne, while Mongolian No.3 washed coal rose 40 yuan from the previous period to 1,820 yuan per tonne. The pace of production resumption in Qinyuan County has accelerated, with more mines gradually returning to operation. However, safety inspections and approval constraints continue to limit actual output increases. The number of idled mines in Shanxi remains high, and sample mine capacity utilization rates stay at relatively low levels, leaving the structural shortage of low-sulfur primary coking coal unchanged. Spot market sentiment has weakened notably. Online auction failure rates in producing regions remain elevated, with transactions dominated by price reductions. Mongolian coal auctions at the border port have also seen consecutive failures, and traders have shifted from holding back supply to actively selling. Downstream restocking is nearing completion, and with steel mills' profitability in poor shape, expectations of coke price reductions are rising, further dampening coking coal procurement. In the short term, the coking coal market is expected to fluctuate with a weaker bias.
Coke: Yesterday, the coke market declined. By the close of the day session, the coke 2701 contract settled at 1,968.5 yuan per tonne, down 15.5 yuan, a decline of 0.78%, with open interest increasing by 258 lots. In the spot market, the price of quasi-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao port fell 10 yuan from the previous period to 1,920 yuan per tonne. Coke producers have turned profitable, boosting production enthusiasm, and output is steadily recovering. However, tight raw coal supplies and safety inspection constraints mean output curtailments remain widespread, with supply increases mostly marginal in nature. Coke producers continue to proactively reduce inventories, with plant-level stocks remaining low and still declining, tightening the availability of market-circulating supply. On the demand side, daily hot metal output at steel mills remains high, and production resumption at previously idled mills is supporting firm consumption. However, September demand has underperformed expectations, and losses among steel mills remain widespread. Coke procurement has shifted to need-based purchasing, with no obvious signs of concentrated pre-holiday stocking. The fifth round of spot price increases has concluded, and primary dry-quenched coke quotes in major producing regions are temporarily stable, though expectations for the first round of price cuts are growing. In the short term, the coke market is expected to fluctuate with a weaker bias.
Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, manganese silicon futures prices strengthened with fluctuations. The main contract settled at 5,852 yuan per tonne, up 0.41% from the previous session, while open interest for the main contract decreased by 21,605 lots to 256,500 lots. The broader ferrous complex weakened yesterday, but manganese silicon prices held up relatively well, with the center of gravity edging higher sequentially. Manganese ore prices have remained relatively stable recently. Ahead of the holidays, downstream buyers are mainly restocking on an as-needed basis with limited willingness to build inventories. Traders also show limited appetite for selling at low prices, resulting in relatively subdued trading activity. From a supply-demand perspective, manganese silicon output may decline in the near term, as several producers, mainly concentrated in the south, have announced production halts. On the demand side, recent steel mill tender prices for manganese silicon have also declined, mostly falling in the 5,810-5,900 yuan per tonne range. Weekly demand from sampled steel mills rose 0.22% from the previous week to 111,000 tonnes, though absolute levels remain low. On inventories, stocks at 63 sample manganese silicon producers stood at 365,700 tonnes, down 18,300 tonnes week-on-week but up 165,800 tonnes year-on-year. Overall, supply and demand are both weak in the manganese silicon market, with some support from the cost side. However, the fundamental drivers are limited, and manganese silicon prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term.
Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, ferrosilicon futures prices fluctuated lower. The main contract settled at 5,992 yuan per tonne, down 0.2% from the previous session, while open interest for the main contract decreased by 703 lots to 272,300 lots. The broader ferrous complex weakened yesterday, dragging down the ferrosilicon price center of gravity. On the news front, a major semi-coke procurement enterprise in Inner Mongolia recently issued a price adjustment notice, raising the ex-works price of Shenmu semi-coke fines from 1,010 yuan per tonne to 1,080 yuan per tonne (tax included), effective September 24. From a supply-demand perspective, ferrosilicon producers are seeing both maintenance shutdowns and production resumptions, with supply-side pressure gradually easing. As of last weekend, weekly ferrosilicon output fell 5.11% from the prior week to 113,300 tonnes. On the demand side, weekly consumption at sampled steel mills rose 0.76% from the previous week to 18,100 tonnes, though absolute levels remain low. On inventories, stocks at 60 sample ferrosilicon producers increased by 1,250 tonnes week-on-week to 82,290 tonnes, positioning at elevated levels relative to recent years for the same period. Overall, cost-side support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, but this alone may not sustain upward momentum. Ferrosilicon prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the near term.
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