Apple Market Perspective Market News and Key Data In the futures market, the Apple 2610 contract closed at 7,490 yuan per ton yesterday, marking an increase of 97 yuan or 1.31% from the previous session. In the spot market, the price for premium 80# late-harvest Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 3.20 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10-993, down by 3 points. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the price for semi-premium 70# and above late-harvest Fuji was 3.75 yuan per jin, also unchanged, with a spot basis of AP10+107, down by 3 points.
Recent market information indicates that inventory prices in apple-producing regions have stabilized for the time being. The number of traders has increased slightly compared to earlier periods, with many selecting cost-effective supplies. Shipments of lower-priced goods have improved somewhat. Currently, many producing areas are in the busy farming season, leading to labor shortages in local cold storage facilities. In the northwest region, recent demand has primarily come from small-scale buyers, while large and medium-sized clients have limited procurement. Growers are reducing prices to stimulate sales, resulting in chaotic pricing. In Shandong, a small number of traders are sourcing cost-effective red-striped varieties, with overall transaction volumes remaining average. E-commerce and export procurement have increased slightly. Efforts to reduce inventories of juice-grade and preserved fruit-grade apples are ongoing. For the new season, growers have begun thinning fruits, and bagging has commenced in areas like Fuping, Shaanxi. In Qixia, prices for premium 80# red-striped apples range from 2.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin, while standard 80# goods are around 1.5 to 2.0 yuan per jin. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, grower prices for standard goods are between 2.3 and 2.8 yuan per jin, while semi-premium goods from traders are priced from 3.5 to 4.2 yuan per jin upon leaving storage. In Jingning, Gansu, semi-premium goods are priced between 4.5 and 7.0 yuan per jin.
Market Analysis Apple futures experienced a slight rebound yesterday, with the main contract fluctuating at low levels. Trading in producing regions has generally stabilized, with faster digestion of low-priced goods in the west. Prices in Shandong have bottomed out but still face pressure, as growers are mostly selling at prevailing market prices. Arrivals at consumption areas are normal, but sales are slow. Seasonal fruits like watermelons and lychees are entering the market in large quantities, continuously diverting terminal consumption. The nationwide pace of inventory reduction in cold storage is slower than the same period last year, with current inventories exceeding last year's levels. The remaining stock is of lower quality, shifting the pressure of destocking to later periods. Bagging for the new season's apples has begun gradually, with good fruit setting. Expectations of a bumper harvest continue to weigh on the valuation of distant-month contracts. In the short term, the market may continue its weak trend.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Insufficient boost in terminal consumption, intensified competition from substitute fruits, pressure from inventory destocking.
Jujube Market Perspective Market News and Key Data In the futures market, the Jujube 2609 contract closed at 8,910 yuan per ton yesterday, a decrease of 145 yuan or 1.60% from the previous session. In the spot market, the price for premium gray jujubes in Hebei was 7.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09-1010, up by 145 points.
Recent market information shows that accumulated temperatures in main gray jujube-producing regions are generally higher than in recent years. Growers are actively managing their orchards, with orderly progress in pruning, fertilizing, and bud removal. The flowering period has begun, approximately half a month earlier than usual. It is expected that girdling work will gradually commence by the end of the month. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes during the flowering period. On May 20, three trucks arrived at the parking area of the Cuierzhuang market in Hebei. Market arrivals consisted mainly of off-grade goods, with traders selecting suitable supplies based on demand. Three trucks arrived at the Ruyifang market in Guangdong. Recent transactions have been sluggish due to the plum rain season.
Market Analysis Jujube futures prices were weak and consolidated at low levels yesterday, lacking upward momentum. New-season jujube trees in producing regions have entered the initial flowering stage, with higher accumulated temperatures advancing the growth schedule. Trading activity in consumption regions remains subdued, with limited support from Dragon Boat Festival stocking. The concentrated arrival of seasonal summer fruits continues to divert consumption. Sample inventories remain relatively high compared to the same period, with a slow destocking pace, putting pressure on the spot market. In the short term, the combination of the off-season for consumption and ample supply may lead to continued low-level consolidation in the futures market. Subsequent focus should be on the pace of inventory destocking and weather changes in producing regions.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Persistently weak terminal consumption, diversion by seasonal fruits, slow inventory destocking, disruptions from pests and weather in the new season.
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