**Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices surged before retreating, with China's refined copper imports remaining at a loss. Macro data from the New York Fed showed its general business conditions index plummeting by 23 points to -3.9, signaling contraction in manufacturing. However, the six-month outlook improved significantly, with the index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since early this year, reflecting optimism in orders and shipments. Domestically, November economic data revealed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining sharply month-on-month, while fixed-asset and real estate investments faced pressure, underscoring the need for policy support. Inventory-wise, LME copper stocks fell by 25 tons to 165,875 tons; COMEX copper warrants rose by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons; and BC copper warrants grew by 301 tons to 5,965 tons. With the Bank of Japan's meeting imminent, macro uncertainties and overseas market volatility may dampen risk appetite, warranting short-term caution.
**Nickel & Stainless Steel**: LME nickel dropped 2.22% overnight to $14,295/ton, while SHFE nickel fell 2.15% to ¥112,530/ton. LME inventories rose by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. LME 0-3 month backwardation remained negative, while import nickel premiums held steady at ¥400/ton. Nickel ore benchmark prices dipped slightly, with premiums stable. In the traditional supply chain, nickel-iron prices were steady, and stainless steel spot market sentiment improved, with nationwide social inventories down 1.55% weekly to 1.0636 million tons. For the new energy sector, raw material prices were pressured by nickel’s decline and year-end effects, while ternary precursor output in December dropped month-on-month. Domestic primary nickel inventories resumed accumulation. Weak fundamentals dragged nickel prices lower, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macro sentiment.
**Alumina, Primary Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy**: Overnight, alumina weakened slightly, with the AO2601 contract closing at ¥2,527/ton (-0.75%), while open interest fell by 4,833 lots to 201,000 lots. SHFE aluminum (AL2602) dipped 0.11% to ¥21,865/ton, with open interest up by 984 lots to 295,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2602) edged up 0.12% to ¥20,945/ton, with open interest rising by 30 lots to 17,869 lots. Spot alumina prices retreated to ¥2,790/ton, and aluminum ingot discounts narrowed to ¥40/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum was quoted at ¥21,590/ton, at a ¥120/ton discount to Wuxi A00. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees rose by ¥70–120/ton, while low-carbon aluminum rod fees dropped by ¥321/ton. Year-end alumina contract negotiations saw firms maintaining output despite losses. Domestic bauxite supply remained tight, while Australian ore shipments surged, with import prices slightly down. Post-Fed rate cuts, macro expectations for 2024’s supply-demand dynamics supported aluminum prices, compounded by Xinjiang shipment delays and inventory drawdowns.
**Silicon Metal & Polysilicon**: On the 15th, silicon metal (2605) rose 1.15% to ¥8,350/ton, with open interest up by 11,817 lots to 201,000 lots. Spot prices held at ¥9,580/ton, while #421 silicon dipped to ¥8,850/ton, widening the premium to ¥500/ton. Polysilicon (2605) surged 3.61% to ¥58,030/ton, with open interest up by 16,408 lots to 143,000 lots. N-type polysilicon prices steadied at ¥52,350/ton, with spot discounts to futures widening to ¥5,730/ton. Southwest production cuts met expectations but failed to offset weak downstream demand. Trading focused on hedging and backlogged orders. Exchange measures eased polysilicon squeeze risks, while market rumors on capacity reserves diverged. Spot oversupply and tight warrants decoupled futures, though high open interest lent support.
**Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract rose 1.4% to ¥101,060/ton. Spot battery-grade carbonate averaged ¥95,150/ton (+¥650), industrial-grade at ¥92,650/ton (+¥650), and battery-grade hydroxide (coarse) at ¥83,530/ton (+¥500). Warrants rose by 210 tons to 15,260 tons. Weekly output increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene-based output up 260 tons to 13,744 tons, while lepidolite output fell 200 tons to 2,876 tons. December output is forecast to rise 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons. Demand-side, ternary material output dropped 384 tons to 18,313 tons, with inventories down 318 tons to 18,524 tons; LFP output fell 1,336 tons to 94,144 tons, with stocks down 23 tons to 103,658 tons. Total inventories declined by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, with turnover days at 26.5 (-0.5 days weekly). Overseas supply disruptions and weaker restart expectations buoyed prices. Mid-term, seasonal weakness may be offset by strong downstream restocking and cathode capacity expansions, keeping prices resilient.
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