① Independent analyst Ed Zitron recently stated that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is straightforward because it is essentially a bubble centered on OpenAI;
② He pointed out that OpenAI is the sole reason people are paying attention to AI—and its failure could trigger a crash similar to the one caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Cailian Press, July 17 (Editor Huang Junzhi) Independent analyst Ed Zitron recently stated that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is straightforward because it is essentially a bubble centered on OpenAI.
As ChatGPT developer OpenAI approaches a significant IPO, the researcher and AI skeptic noted that OpenAI is the sole reason people are paying attention to AI—and its failure could trigger a crash similar to the one caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
OpenAI secretly filed its IPO application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 8, 2026, officially initiating the listing process, with a target valuation of approximately $1 trillion. However, due to lawsuits and market competition, the exact listing date remains uncertain, with an expected window from autumn 2026 to early 2027.
Zitron has repeatedly issued warnings about AI, particularly OpenAI. Last month, he released a report stating that OpenAI's financial situation is in disarray.
In his latest article published on July 15, he wrote, "The release of ChatGPT in November 2022 came at the perfect time for a tech industry starved of creativity. OpenAI's emergence provided justification for an era of frenzy and extravagance."
He also noted that OpenAI is the reason for the existence of its biggest competitor, Anthropic. This is partly because Anthropic's founders came from OpenAI and because it has received funding from tech giants eager to secure a foothold in AI by supporting OpenAI's main rival.
Zitron believes that the AI bubble exists solely due to the attention Sam Altman's company has garnered from the public, investors, and the ecosystem of companies that have flourished under its influence.
He wrote: "The only reason the AI bubble has lasted this long is that OpenAI hasn't collapsed yet. Its failure would be a watershed moment—akin to Lehman Brothers for AI, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another."
However, Zitron also admitted that he cannot predict how or when OpenAI might fail, but he believes it would be a watershed event that would upend the market built around AI transactions and the economy driven by endless capital expenditures as companies pursue AI goals.
For example, if OpenAI stops paying infrastructure companies like CoreWeave and Oracle, Zitron speculates these companies might default on their debts. If OpenAI's troubles worsen, it could discontinue the free version of ChatGPT and raise user fees, ultimately causing investors to lose confidence in funding AI startups.
"I believe that once OpenAI crashes, it will deliver a severe blow to the entire stock market, signaling a broader decline as everyone realizes the AI bubble has burst," he added.
Zitron concluded by emphasizing that the spending driving the AI bubble represents "the greatest misallocation of capital in history." This exact phrase was previously used by Gary Marcus, a prominent AI researcher at New York University and founder of machine learning company Geometric Intelligence, who has also expressed significant concerns about the AI bubble.
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