Guojin Securities has initiated coverage on GENFLEET-B (02595) with a "Buy" rating. The firm projects the company's sales revenue for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be RMB 146 million, RMB 160 million, and RMB 335 million, representing year-on-year growth of 12.3%, 9.4%, and 109.1%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -RMB 185 million, -RMB 184 million, and -RMB 236 million for the same periods. Based on a DCF valuation model, Guojin Securities calculates a reasonable market capitalization of RMB 17.97 billion, corresponding to a target price of HK$55.63 per share.
The key points of the analysis are as follows. The company is focused on developing therapies for "undruggable" targets, positioning itself precisely in critical global therapeutic areas. It has built a differentiated pipeline matrix centered on the RAS signaling pathway. This includes Fuzereisai, the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved for marketing in China; GFH375, an oral KRAS G12D inhibitor with leading global R&D progress; GFH276, a pan-RAS molecular glue with best-in-class potential; and GFS202A, a GDF15/IL-6 bispecific antibody targeting the significant unmet need in cancer cachexia. Approximately 30% of global cancer patients have RAS mutations, making it a highly valuable development direction. Breakthroughs in overcoming the historical "undruggable" nature of these targets have spurred a global R&D wave, and the company's pipeline is considered first-tier. GENFLEET completed its Hong Kong IPO in September 2025, raising USD 268 million.
GFH375, with its leading global development progress, has the potential to disrupt the vast market for pancreatic cancer, often termed the "king of cancers," which has a five-year survival rate of only about 13% and a high unmet clinical need for effective targeted therapies. The KRAS G12D mutation is particularly prevalent in pancreatic cancer (43.6%) and is associated with higher malignancy. GFH375 is the most advanced oral KRAS G12D inhibitor globally and has demonstrated superior clinical potential compared to competitors, even in patients with poor baseline conditions and later lines of therapy. It has now entered registration clinical trials, and early antitumor activity and an excellent safety signal have been observed in overseas Phase I/IIa dose-escalation studies.
The company's RAS pipeline matrix is comprehensive, enriching the R&D pipeline across multiple dimensions. GFH276 is a novel pan-RAS molecular glue with best-in-class potential, boasting superior molecular properties and resistance to multiple drug resistances; it is currently in Phase I clinical trials. GFS202A is the world's first GDF15/IL-6 bispecific antibody for the major unmet clinical need of cancer cachexia and is also in Phase I trials. GFS784 is the first pan-RAS inhibitor payload ADC globally and is in the IND stage. The continuous output of new molecular entities ensures a robust R&D pipeline.
The report also highlights several risk factors, including potential delays in commercialization, intensifying market competition, slower-than-expected progress in clinical trials, delays in product approval reviews, and risks associated with the release of locked-up shares.
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