MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) rose nearly 3%. As of the time of writing, the stock was up 2.68%, trading at HK$16.13, with a turnover of HK$312 million. A research report from Donghai Securities pointed out that as of January 15th, the average price of fresh raw milk was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram, placing raw milk prices at levels last seen in October 2010. Since the second half of 2025, raw milk prices have fluctuated within the range of 3.02 to 3.04 yuan per kilogram, remaining persistently low, which has accelerated the reduction of production capacity on dairy farms. As of January 23rd, the price for culled dairy cows was 19.93 yuan per kilogram, up 2.5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that an inflection point in industry supply and demand is gradually approaching. Furthermore, the implementation of policies regarding dairy and beef imports has boosted domestic demand substitution, which is favorable for meat and milk prices in 2026. Citi released a research report stating that among China's large consumer staples companies, it expects MENGNIU DAIRY's cyclical profit recovery this year to be more pronounced than its peers. The bank anticipates that the group's sales will recover to high single-digit growth from January to February this year, with full-year growth expected to reach 5%. With raw milk prices expected to stabilize cyclically by mid-year, coupled with positive operating leverage and a lower comparative base, the company's operating profit margin is projected to expand again this year.
Comments