Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On June 17th, fundamental analysis of gold: During early Asian trading on Wednesday, spot gold was trading around $4,336 per ounce, with prices showing an upward oscillation. Gold prices rose on Tuesday, with spot gold closing up 0.51% at $4,331.05 per ounce, primarily driven by market expectations cooling for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. This cooling was due to a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement extending the ceasefire by 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which alleviated inflation concerns. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates the probability of a December rate hike has fallen to about 60% from roughly 70% last week, as investors await the first interest rate decision under new Fed Chair Wash.
Technical analysis of gold: From a technical chart perspective, the daily chart shows an inverted hammer-harami candlestick pattern, which intuitively reflects strong resistance above. The market has entered a short-term equilibrium state between bulls and bears, with price action primarily characterized by grinding consolidation. Key short-term price levels are defined as follows: The strong support zone: $4,310 is the intraday point for long positioning, while $4,304 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. A decisive break below this level would shift the short-term consolidation range lower. Stepwise resistance levels are at $4,335, $4,350, and $4,355. The key medium-term resistance level is $4,370. If prices can break and hold above $4,370 with volume, the upside space would be fully opened, with targets extending above $4,400. If prices remain under sustained pressure around $4,355, the market is expected to continue oscillating within the narrow range of $4,304 to $4,355.
Today's trading strategy suggests entering long positions if the price retraces to around $4,310 and shows signs of stabilization and a halt in decline, with a stop loss at $4,304. Partial profit-taking should be arranged as follows: Take some profits at the first target of $4,335, continue taking profits at the second target of $4,350, and close the majority of the position upon touching $4,355. If the price decisively breaks above the $4,370 level, hold the position to target the extended space above $4,400. For short-term selling at highs: If the price rallies to the $4,365-$4,375 range and shows signs of stalling, such as long upper shadows or other pressure signals, consider a light short position. Set the stop loss at $4,380, with short-term targets looking back to $4,335 and $4,310. Close the short position immediately upon reaching the retracement target, avoiding holding it for the medium to long term. Overall, for gold's short-term operations today, the recommended strategy is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $4,355-$4,370 zone, while key short-term support below is focused around the $4,310-$4,290 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Fundamental analysis of crude oil: During early Asian trading on Wednesday (June 17th Beijing time), driven by cooling market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, and due to a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement extending the ceasefire by 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—while also allowing Iran to immediately resume oil exports—oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive session. US crude oil once touched a three-month low of $75.51 per barrel and may test the $75 per barrel level during the day. Oil prices fell sharply for a second consecutive day on Tuesday. Brent crude closed down 4.81% at $79.45 per barrel, while US crude futures settled down 5.59% at $76.62, both marking their lowest closing prices in three months. The main driver was the emergence of details regarding a provisional agreement to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with US President Trump stating the deal would ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.
Technical analysis of crude oil: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices are moving through the moving average system, indicating a medium-term objective trend direction entering a consolidation phase. The overall oscillatory pattern in oil price movements is considered a secondary rhythm, which has now been maintained for over three months. Attention is on support at the lower boundary of the range. Bearish momentum is strengthening, suggesting the medium-term trend is likely to break below the range's lower boundary, with a high probability of entering a downward trend. The short-term (1-hour) crude oil trend shows a downward rhythm, with the moving average system suppressing prices, indicating the short-term objective downtrend remains intact. The early session showed a low-level secondary consolidation rhythm with bearish momentum dominant. Intraday, the crude oil trend is expected to continue moving downward, potentially breaking below the $80 support to set new lows. Overall, for crude oil operations today, the recommended strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $78.5-$80.5 zone, while key short-term support below is focused around the $74.0-$72.0 zone.
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