Today, the three major Hong Kong stock indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index surging over 2% at one point during the session. The unexpected weakness in the US June non-farm payrolls report triggered a significant rebound in oversold gold ETFs. Meanwhile, Unitree Robotics' IPO registration for the STAR Market received approval, fueling a broad-based rally in the robotics sector.
The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.28% at 23,350.03 points, with a full-day turnover of HK$304.954 billion. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1%, closing at 4,499 points.
Among Hong Kong-listed ETFs, the top products by size performed as follows: Tracker Fund (02800) rose 1.28% to HK$23.8; CSOP 2x Long Hynix Daily (07709) surged 6.57% to HK$116.8; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (02828) increased 1.02% to HK$79.12.
Sector Performance
1. Gold Sector Rebounds on Weak US Jobs Data
The US June non-farm payrolls report significantly underperformed expectations, leading to a strong rebound across the gold sector and related ETFs.
By the close, the E Fund Gold Miners ETF (02824) had surged 9.05% to HK$9.1. On the mainland, the Yongying Gold Stock ETF (517520.SH) rose 7.25% to RMB 1.776, and the ChinaAMC Gold Stock ETF (159562.SZ) gained 7.27% to RMB 1.933.
US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below the expected 113,000, with previous data also revised sharply lower. The US dollar index weakened in response, while COMEX gold futures prices rebounded, approaching the $4,200 per ounce level.
Liu Tingyu from Yongying Fund noted that recent declines in overseas inflation expectations suggest the market may have overreacted in pricing in rate hike expectations. Looking ahead, gold is expected to realign with the primary theme of a weakening US dollar credit. The long-term investment value and rationale for gold and gold stocks remain largely unchanged, and the recent correction in gold stocks has actually enhanced their investment appeal.
Fidelity International's view is that the long-term attractiveness of the US dollar has diminished due to increased US policy uncertainty. While gold's performance during the recent geopolitical conflict has been surprisingly weak, the firm remains optimistic about its long-term prospects as the underlying drivers remain supportive. They believe gold often performs well when inflation erodes bond returns and can effectively diversify risk when stock-bond correlations rise. Gold typically performs favorably in environments of a weakening dollar and declining real interest rates.
2. Robotics Sector Surges on Dual Catalysts
Unitree Robotics' STAR Market IPO approval, coupled with the approaching mass production of Tesla's Optimus, created a dual positive catalyst, driving a strong rally across the robotics industry chain and related ETFs.
By the close, the Penghua Robotics ETF (159278.SZ) soared 9.37% to RMB 1.261. The Fullgoal Robotics ETF (159272.SZ) jumped 9.25% to RMB 1.075, and the E Fund Robotics ETF (159530.SZ) surged 8.69% to RMB 1.776.
On July 2nd, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) website showed that it has approved the registration application for Unitree Robotics Co., Ltd.'s initial public offering and listing on the STAR Market.
Guotai Junan Securities stated that the humanoid robotics sector is currently at a critical juncture, transitioning from "theme mapping" to "industrial validation." Unitree's rapid approval process, taking just 104 days, and its emergence as the first "embodied AI" stock on the A-share market will provide a systematic valuation anchor for the entire industry chain. Drawing parallels to the revaluation effect seen in the new energy vehicle supply chain, component suppliers with core competitive advantages are expected to be the first beneficiaries as mass production ramps up.
CITIC Securities' analysis suggests this year's robotics theme will revolve around "Tesla's mass production timeline & the capital market activities of domestic OEMs." With Optimus mass production approaching, some suppliers in the Tesla supply chain have reportedly received production guidance. The shift of the Fremont automotive production line to robotics is a substantial step ahead of mass production. The anticipated mid-year release and official production start of Optimus V3 are expected to proceed as scheduled, suggesting the robotics industry, which has been developing for 4-5 years, may be approaching an inflection point. The focus is recommended on high-probability Tesla supply chain plays, technological upgrade directions, and undervalued stocks with potential for positive surprises, as well as other domestic supply chains like Unitree's with volume production capabilities.
Institutional Perspectives
Huatai Securities noted that the Hong Kong market trended lower last week, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 23,000-point level. Beyond previously priced fundamental factors like consumption data, the market remains constrained by a lack of compelling thematic drivers. Under capital outflows, it has shifted from range-bound consolidation to a downward trend. Looking ahead, the space for a reversal has not yet opened, and the concentrated unlocking of newly listed tech stocks in early July may still exert negative pressure. In terms of allocation, short-term focus is on stocks with high short interest and those showing marginal improvement in earnings expectations, such as media and innovative drug sectors. For OCI accounts, high-dividend stocks that have fallen to attractive valuations may be worth attention.
Huachuang Securities recently analyzed that the current "K-shaped" market divergence stems from earnings divergence. A rotation from high to low valuations is unlikely; the more probable scenario is a pullback from high levels rather than a catch-up rally in low-priced stocks. The recent retreat in tech/AI stocks is more attributable to liquidity factors (denominator) rather than any apparent fundamental risks (numerator). The net profit of the entire A-share market is still expected to recover continuously, suggesting the current adjustment may be relatively limited.
Looking forward, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management believes that while current market concerns exist regarding the input-output ratio in areas like tech hardware under the AI trend, the AI narrative is far from over.
Comments