Starting at 24:00 on July 17, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) have been raised by 300 yuan and 290 yuan per ton, respectively.
On July 17 at midnight, the domestic refined oil product price adjustment window reopened once more.
The latest notice from the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that since the previous domestic refined oil price adjustment on July 3, international market crude oil prices have fluctuated with an upward trend. The average price over the 10 working days preceding this adjustment was higher than the average over the 10 working days before the last adjustment.
In response to changes in international market oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that, effective 24:00 on July 17, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) prices per ton are increased by 300 yuan and 290 yuan, respectively. This marks the ninth price hike for domestic fuel since the start of the year.
When these adjustment amounts are converted to a per-liter basis, the price of 89-octane gasoline rises by 0.22 yuan per liter, 92-octane gasoline by 0.23 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.24 yuan per liter, and 0-grade diesel by 0.25 yuan per liter.
According to calculations by industry research firm Longzhong Information, post-adjustment, the retail price for automotive diesel in most regions nationwide will be between 7.2 yuan and 7.4 yuan per liter, while the retail ceiling price for 92-octane gasoline will be between 7.2 yuan and 7.3 yuan per liter.
For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, this price adjustment means filling the tank will cost approximately 11.5 yuan more. For vehicles consuming 7 to 8 liters per 100 kilometers in city driving, the average cost per 100 kilometers increases by about 1.7 yuan. For large logistics vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost per 100 kilometers rises by roughly 10 yuan.
"This pricing cycle began with a negative composite crude oil change rate, but it ultimately shifted into positive territory, resulting in an upward adjustment for refined oil products," according to Longzhong Information statistics. The highest change rate during the cycle was +6.39% on the tenth working day, and the lowest was -4.68% on the second working day.
Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, stated that at the start of this adjustment cycle, international oil prices fell as both the US and Iran agreed to continue deepening talks and as the Strait gradually reopened, repairing supply gaps. Subsequently, international oil prices surged significantly after the US side declared the ceasefire agreement had ended and Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking Ahead
Looking forward, Li Yan indicated that overall, the probability of another upward adjustment in the next refined oil product pricing cycle is relatively high. "The US-Iran conflict has reignited, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, and there is potential for further escalation in the situation between the two sides, prolonging global crude oil supply risks."
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