Major Shareholder James Liang Cuts Stake Again, Raising Concerns Over Tongcheng Travel's Growth Prospects

Deep News07-09

The once high-flying online travel platform, Tongcheng Travel, which dazzled the market with an 80.7% revenue surge in 2023 and returned to profitability in 2024, now faces a starkly different reality. Its market value has more than halved, with its stock price plummeting from a high of HK$25 to around HK$12, as the company grapples with a sharp slowdown in growth, unexpected losses in a key new business line, and persistent, substantial share sales by a major insider.

As the post-pandemic pent-up travel demand has fully dissipated, a series of concerning data points have emerged: revenue growth has plunged from 80.7% to 11.9%, the vacation business has swung from profit to a loss accompanied by a RMB 453 million goodwill impairment, and non-executive director James Liang has cashed out over HK$280 million in three years, reducing his stake from 0.76% to a mere 0.07%. These developments are prompting the market to scrutinize Tongcheng Travel's long-term value like never before. Questions linger about the sustainability of its growth story, heavily reliant on the WeChat ecosystem, and whether its acquisition of Wanda Hotels can genuinely compensate for weak organic growth. As a key figure effectively votes with his feet, the company's transformation pains may just be beginning.

Examining the Growth Slowdown

Tongcheng Travel's financial trajectory tells the story of fading momentum. From 2022 to 2025, its revenue was RMB 6.585 billion, RMB 11.896 billion, RMB 17.340 billion, and RMB 19.396 billion, representing year-on-year changes of -12.6%, +80.7%, +45.8%, and +11.9%, respectively. The slowdown is dramatic, with 2025's growth rate hitting its lowest since listing. Net profit attributable to shareholders followed a path from a loss of RMB 146 million in 2022, to a profit of RMB 1.554 billion in 2023, then to RMB 1.974 billion in 2024 and RMB 2.371 billion in 2025. While profits have grown, the growth rate has decelerated from 27.0% to 20.1%, indicating a clear weakening in profitability momentum.

A breakdown by segment reveals the core of the trouble. In 2025, revenue from transportation ticketing grew a modest 9.6% to RMB 7.925 billion, while accommodation booking revenue increased 16.8% to RMB 5.451 billion. The most alarming development is in the vacation business. After turning a profit of RMB 87 million in 2024, it reported a loss of RMB 385 million in 2025, with a full-year goodwill impairment of RMB 453 million. Revenue for this segment also fell 6.9% to RMB 2.925 billion. The company attributed the decline to a strategic reduction in its buyout business to lower operational risks and weak travel demand in Southeast Asia and Japan. This segment, once seen as a promising second growth engine, has become a drag on overall performance, with revenue declining a further 5% year-on-year to RMB 556 million in Q1 2026.

The hotel management business currently stands as a rare bright spot. Following the acquisition of Wanda Hotels & Resorts in mid-October 2025, Tongcheng Travel has rounded out its portfolio with high-end brands. This contributed to a 53.0% year-on-year increase in "other revenue" to RMB 917 million in Q4 2025 and a 34.4% increase for the full year to RMB 3.095 billion. However, this growth is currently driven by the acquisition, and the company's organic growth capability remains unproven. Furthermore, its heavy dependence on traffic from the WeChat ecosystem, where it holds exclusive OTA service slots, continues to be a fundamental characteristic and potential vulnerability.

Insider Selling Adds to Pressure

James Liang, co-founder and executive chairman of Trip.com Group Limited and a former co-chairman of Tongcheng Travel's board (now a non-executive director), has been a persistent seller of the company's shares. His stake plummeted in the second half of 2024 from 0.76% to 0.14%, involving the sale of over 14 million shares for approximately HK$200 million. The selling continued into 2026, with his holding further shrinking to around 0.07%, effectively nearing a complete exit.

In 2024, Mr. Liang conducted at least seven separate sales, offloading over 11 million shares for about HK$210 million. These sales were often clustered, such as five transactions in April and two large ones in early October. The pattern continued through the first seven months of 2026, with seven more sales totaling 4.61 million shares, netting roughly HK$76.2 million and reducing his stake to the current 0.07%.

Notably, Mr. Liang's selling appears well-timed, frequently occurring during periods of relative or反弹 highs in the share price. For instance, sales in April 2024 coincided with prices in the HK$20-22 range, a high for that year. Similarly, sales in October 2024 took advantage of a broader market rebound. This pattern of "selling into strength" has been observed, with the stock price often declining following his disposals. The correlation between his减持节奏 and the stock's performance has arguably weighed on market sentiment.

Year-to-date in 2026, Tongcheng Travel's stock has trended downward, closing at HK$12.51 on July 9, nearly halving from its peak earlier in the year. The trajectory of Mr. Liang's stake reduction from 0.76% to near-zero has unfolded in parallel with the stock's decline from its highs. His cumulative cash-out of over HK$280 million in three years represents a significant and precise exit.

When a board member and influential core shareholder chooses to vote with their feet through sustained selling, it inevitably forces the market to re-evaluate a company's long-term investment thesis. For Tongcheng Travel, with slowing core growth, a new business line that is losing money, and the benefits of a major acquisition yet to be fully realized, Mr. Liang's departure raises a critical question: is his exit a vote of no confidence in the company's ability to overcome its current growth瓶颈? The answer remains to be seen.

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