Ark Investment Management's Brett Winton has stated that, based on current leasing rates, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) could potentially generate $300 billion in annual revenue by the end of this decade through the deployment of tens of gigawatts of orbital data center capacity.
This assessment was made by Ark's Chief Futurist, Winton, on Thursday ahead of SpaceX's record-breaking initial public offering pricing, where he detailed the estimation logic behind the company's potential. SpaceX is currently the largest holding in Ark's venture capital fund.
Winton highlighted that SpaceX's opportunities include its new booster rockets and its highly profitable Starlink satellite internet business. "The Starlink business alone could recoup its cash investment within six months," Winton said in an interview, explaining that while a single satellite-laden SpaceX launch costs around $500 million, those satellites are projected to generate $1 billion in annual revenue over their five-year lifespan.
Winton further noted that by switching from the current Falcon 9 rocket to SpaceX's new Starship vehicle at the same launch cadence, the Starlink satellite business could generate nearly $200 billion in revenue within two years. This projection does not require achieving the ambitious goal of 1,000 launches per year, a target set by Elon Musk to place one million tons of cargo into orbit within five years.
Ark predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, despite the company reporting a $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter.
Similar to other investors supporting SpaceX in the private market, Winton suggested that Elon Musk might consider merging SpaceX with his publicly traded company, Tesla Inc.
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