Zheshang Securities: "Zootopia 2" Box Office Expected to Exceed Forecasts; 2026 Spring Festival Lineup Nearing Finalization

Stock News12-02

As of December 1, 2025, "Zootopia 2" has grossed over 1.94 billion yuan in its first five days, with total projected earnings reaching 4.25 billion yuan. Notably, the film's single-day box office on November 29 (Saturday) outperformed expectations, according to Maoyan Pro data, prompting upward revisions to its total forecast.

The 2026 New Year's holiday lineup already includes three confirmed releases, such as "Nobody: Extraordinary Meaning," while potential Spring Festival contenders like "Change of Heart," "Pegasus 3," and "Shaolin Women’s Soccer" could further boost the season. With resilient demand during peak periods and a strong content pipeline, holiday box office performance is expected to normalize, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Key observations from Zheshang Securities: 1. **"Zootopia 2" Weekend Surprise**: - The film’s fourth-day earnings (first weekend day) matched "Ne Zha: Birth of the Demon Child’s" Day 4 at 730 million yuan, surpassing the original "Zootopia." - Weak competition allowed "Zootopia 2" to secure 76.8% screen share, far exceeding "Ne Zha’s" 38.2% (during Spring Festival) and the first film’s 18.9%. - Average ticket price: 39.3 yuan (no premium pricing observed).

2. **Beneficiaries**: - Distributors: China Film, Huaxia Film (Shanghai Film holds 11% stake). - Theater chains: Wanda Film, Hengdian Cinema, Shanghai Film. - IP merchandise: Pop Mart (blind boxes), Miniso (blind boxes), Shifeng Culture, Yaoji Tech.

3. **2025 Box Office Recovery**: - Spring Festival: 9.51 billion yuan (+18.69% YoY), driven by "Ne Zha’s" record-breaking run. - Summer: 11.97 billion yuan (+2.77% YoY), buoyed by diverse genres. - National Day: 1.84 billion yuan (-12.83% YoY), hurt by weak demand and lack of innovation.

4. **2026 Outlook**: - New Year/Spring Festival lineup features sequels and high-IP-potential titles, signaling a strong start. - Projections: Core holiday box office may recover to 89%–103% of 2019 levels, with full-year revenue reaching 48.1–58 billion yuan.

**Stocks to Watch**: Wanda Film (002739.SZ), Bona Film (001330.SZ), DAMAI ENT (01060), China Film (600977.SH).

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