As the Spring Festival holiday concludes, the A-share market is poised to resume trading. During the mainland market closure, the FTSE A50 futures index repeatedly hit new highs, while the Hong Kong stock market also delivered a strong performance. On February 23, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index saw early-session gains expand to over 2%, driven by strength in technology and precious metal stocks. Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) rose more than 5%, while Meituan (03690.HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) both gained over 4%.
Meanwhile, ample liquidity support is in place. The central bank ensured stable liquidity before the holiday through operations such as outright reverse repos. January's financial data also showed a strong start, with M2 money supply growing 9.0% year-over-year and total social financing stock increasing 8.2%, providing a favorable macro environment for the market.
Historically, over the past 20 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 75% of the time in the five trading days following the Spring Festival, with an average gain of 1.2%. The return of pre-holiday risk-off funds, combined with policy support, is expected to quickly boost post-holiday trading activity. Several institutional research reports indicate that, supported by factors such as abundant liquidity, the "calendar effect," policy tailwinds, and industrial trends, technology stocks are likely to lead the A-share market after the holiday.
The positive signals from overseas markets during the Spring Festival break cannot be overlooked. As of this writing, the FTSE A50 futures index was up 1.48%, having accumulated a gain of over 1.7% during the A-share market closure, reflecting overseas investors' optimism toward Chinese core assets. In Hong Kong, although the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced overall volatility, sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, and AI applications showed notable strength, providing a clear overseas reference for the potential tech rally in A-shares after the holiday.
Reviewing pre-holiday A-share trends, the market rose initially before retreating between February 9 and 13. On the last trading day before the break (February 13), the benchmark index closed down 1.26% at 4,082.07 points, with daily turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan. Historically, a significant "calendar effect" is observed around the Spring Festival—trading volume typically shrinks before the holiday due to risk aversion and rises afterward, influenced by overseas uncertainties and increased cash demand during the long break.
Statistically, the pre-holiday period is often a relative "dormant phase," while post-holiday trading sentiment rebounds, incremental funds tend to return, and market risk appetite improves noticeably. One institution's analysis of historical data from 2016 to 2025 shows that the All-A Index has risen 70% of the time on the first trading day after the Spring Festival and 80% of the time over the first five trading days.
In terms of liquidity, the ample funding environment is not a major concern. The central bank’s pre-holiday support ensured sufficient liquidity. On one hand, January’s strong credit data—with M2 growth of 9.0% year-over-year and total social financing stock up 8.2%—reflected steady expansion. At the same time, the central bank’s clear commitment to stability was evident in its large-scale outright reverse repo operations, which provided substantial medium- to long-term liquidity. Net injections via 14-day and 7-day reverse repos, along with 6-month outright reverse repos, were at relatively high levels compared to the past year.
The technology sector rally is expected to continue. Humanoid robots gained widespread attention after a Spring Festival Gala performance, boosting expectations for a post-holiday tech rally. Historically, market sentiment has often shifted toward tech and growth stocks shortly after the holiday. According to Huajin Securities, technology and growth industries frequently outperform in the 5 to 10 trading days following the break. Over the past decade, the top-performing sectors in the first five post-holiday trading days have often been computer (5 times), electronics (4 times), communications (3 times), and media (3 times). The leadership of tech-growth sectors remains evident even 10 trading days after the holiday.
Institutions generally highlight two key drivers for the post-holiday tech rally in A-shares: First, the period often sees a concentration of policy and industry catalysts, such as initiatives in "AI+" and digital economy development, which tend to accelerate at this time. Second, spillover effects from U.S. and Hong Kong markets are significant—strong performances in overseas tech sectors during the holiday often fuel gains in related A-share stocks.
Market movements offer more direct cues. Hong Kong stocks opened strongly on February 23, with clear leadership in tech. Semiconductors and hardware equipment were among the top gainers, as the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3.5%. Tech giants such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and BYD Company saw broad advances. Additionally, supported by rising international gold and silver prices, the nonferrous metals sector in Hong Kong also performed well.
Moreover, robotics, which became a viral topic during the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, has already spurred gains in related Hong Kong stocks. On February 20, the robotics sector surged collectively, with stocks such as DJI (02432.HK), Suteng Juchuang (02498.HK), and Ubtech (09880.HK) posting significant increases. Investors anticipate that this "Gala + overseas market" effect may drive post-holiday investment enthusiasm in A-share robotics plays.
According to a review of multiple research reports, institutions are generally optimistic that technology-growth and certain cyclical sectors will lead the market after the holiday. The core logic for the continuation of the tech rally lies in the convergence of three factors: ample liquidity, clear industry trends, and supportive policies. On one hand, against a backdrop of loose liquidity, accelerating industry commercialization, and strong policy backing, the probability of tech leadership continuing after the holiday is significantly higher than that of value styles. On the other hand, expectations for proactive policies are rising quickly. Based on recently concluded local government meetings, policy focus is centered on "domestic demand" and "industrial upgrade," with further measures to boost technological innovation and consumption expected to be implemented.
In industrial planning centered on new productive forces, regions such as Zhejiang and Sichuan have set quantitative targets for "intelligent transformation, digitalization, and network integration" in traditional industries. Emerging fields like commercial aerospace and the low-altitude economy have been highlighted as key breakthrough areas.
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