Hot Sections
Stock Watchlist Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading
Client
Steel Morning Report: Unclear Contradictions, Futures Steel Prices Fluctuate Narrowly Market Information: 1. According to customs statistics, China's total foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 3.8%, hitting a record high. Exports amounted to 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, while imports totaled 18.48 trillion yuan, rising 0.5%. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China's cumulative steel exports in 2025 were 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, also reaching a historical peak. 2. The latest data from the China Index Academy indicates that the planned construction area for residential land transactions in 300 cities was 620 million square meters in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with land transfer revenues of 2.3 trillion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year. 3. On January 14, the average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace steel mills producing construction steel was 3,376 yuan per ton, an increase of 6 yuan per ton from the previous day. The average profit was -45 yuan per ton, while the profit during off-peak electricity hours was 69 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton from the day before. 4. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate at 247 steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points from the previous week. The mill profit rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. Average daily hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from the prior week. 5. As of January 9, the weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, up 34,100 tons week-on-week. Total inventory of the five major steel products stood at 12.5392 million tons, an increase of 217,700 tons from the previous week. Weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, down 5% week-on-week. Rebar output increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 28,200 tons this week to 1.9104 million tons. Total rebar inventory accumulated by 160,800 tons to 4.3811 million tons, while apparent demand dropped by 254,800 tons to 1.7496 million tons. Hot-rolled coil output increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons, and apparent demand slightly falling by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons.
Rebar: Last week, rebar output increased by 28,200 tons to 1.9104 million tons, while total rebar inventory accumulated by 160,800 tons to 4.3811 million tons. Apparent demand dropped sharply by 254,800 tons to 1.7496 million tons. Currently, rebar output has risen for the fourth consecutive week, whereas demand continues to weaken, indicating a relatively weak fundamental picture. From a supply and demand perspective, the recent resumption of production at some mills and the increase in hot metal output are positive for raw material prices. However, following the release of speculative demand, downstream end-user procurement may become more cautious. With poor trading volumes in the steel market, the short-term upward momentum for steel prices is likely to slow.
Hot-Rolled Coil: Last week, hot-rolled coil output increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons, while inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons. Apparent demand saw a slight decline of 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons. Pressure from previous capacity and product switching persists, keeping supply relatively ample. On the demand side, the off-season combined with weather constraints means rigid demand from end-users dominates, with almost no incremental demand. Traders maintain a cautious outlook, widely adopting a "low inventory, fast turnover" strategy, actively selling to recoup funds. It is important to note that absolute inventory levels remain high. After the release of speculative demand, downstream procurement may turn cautious, potentially slowing the short-term rise in steel prices. Strategy-wise, the short-term trading range for rebar 2605 is referenced at 3,100-3,200 yuan/ton; the trading range for hot-rolled coil 2605 is referenced at 3,250-3,350 yuan/ton.
Ferroalloy Morning Report: Volatility View: Neutral Overall ferroalloy supply remains low, but profits have improved significantly, suggesting a gradual entry into a slow production increase cycle. Inventories at upstream factories are diverging; silicon iron inventory is acceptable, while silicon manganese still faces pressure. Cost support remains relatively stable, with coke initiating its first round of price increases. Manganese ore prices for February deliveries to China rose by $0.17-$0.25 per ton-month compared to the previous month, indicating underlying cost support persists. On the demand side, expectations of steel mill production resumptions and restocking provide support. However, the pace of resumption is constrained by mills' low profitability, and restocking potential is limited. Demand shows marginal improvement, but the extent remains cautious. Prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern. View: Adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Comments