Recently, A-share market structural characteristics have been fairly pronounced, and discussions about the medium- to long-term market ecosystem have increased. Harvest Fund's Wang Zihan recently stated that three factors — corporate performance, reform, and capital flows — are jointly shaping the market's long-term ecosystem, which has drawn greater attention to the long-term allocation value of high-quality assets.
From a performance perspective, Wang Zihan noted that in the past, A-share listed companies' revenue came basically from the domestic market, and their earnings cycles were highly synchronized with the domestic economy. Today, a growing number of companies expanding overseas derive revenue from around the globe, and some assets already possess global operating characteristics, with profit cycles no longer entirely following domestic ups and downs. At the same time, the A-share industry structure has become more diversified, with sectors such as technology, AI, and robotics showing notable elasticity, but earnings cycles across different sectors are misaligned, making it difficult for the market to move in unison as it once did. She cautioned against using any single indicator to characterize the entire market.
Beyond corporate performance, changes at the institutional level are equally critical. Wang Zihan believes that institutional developments such as the "Nine National Articles," new public fund regulations, and dividend and buyback rules are aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies and encouraging long-term capital to remain in the market. In particular, after dividend supervision was strengthened, listed companies' willingness to pay dividends has increased, and the pricing environment for stable dividend assets has improved.
The capital flow landscape is also shifting. With deposit rates at low levels, residents' demand for preserving and growing their wealth persists and may gradually diversify in multiple directions. Combined with multiple factors, the long-term allocation value of stable dividend assets has attracted more attention.
When it comes to dividend assets, Wang Zihan offered a more intuitive framework. Some market views simply equate dividends with "the opposite of growth," which she considers incomplete. Dividend assets actually sit between bonds and growth stocks. Bonds focus on the present — holding to maturity to collect coupons and principal; extreme growth stocks focus on the future — profiting from valuation spreads by buying low and selling high; dividend assets lie in between. The more stable the dividends and the more abundant the cash flow, the closer they are to bonds, with stronger defensive attributes; the less stable the dividends, the closer they are to growth stocks, with volatility and valuation sensitivity rising accordingly. Therefore, she emphasized that the valuation of dividend assets should reference bond coupon yields rather than relying solely on stock valuations.
For many investors, "dividends" are often placed on the defensive end of a barbell strategy, paired with offensive allocations such as AI+ and high-growth themes, with dynamic rebalancing between the two ends. Defending without attacking makes it easy to miss industry trends, while attacking without defending makes drawdowns hard to bear.
As for how to choose dividend-related products, Wang Zihan reminded that dividend indices are not all the same, and investors should not simply look at whether the word "dividend" appears in the name. She suggested focusing on five dimensions: the comparison between dividend yield and bond yields, as dividend value becomes more attractive when the stock-bond yield spread is wide; volatility and drawdown; correlation with growth assets, which is typically low and can be observed as a hedge; trading crowding; and industry distribution and market cap style.
She also cautioned that low-volatility dividend assets can still experience short-term corrections under extreme sentiment, and historical performance does not represent the future. Active and passive participation each have their own characteristics, and investors need to make prudent judgments based on product fees, tracking error, and their own risk tolerance.
Risk disclosure: Funds carry risks, and investment requires caution. Investors should read legal documents such as the "Fund Contract," "Prospectus," and "Product Information Summary" to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, especially its specific risks, and judge whether it suits their own risk tolerance based on their investment objectives, investment experience, and asset status. The fund manager is committed to managing and operating fund assets with honesty, integrity, and due diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will always be profitable or that principal will not be lost. Past performance does not predict future performance, and the performance of other funds does not constitute a guarantee of this fund's performance. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!
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