A massive short squeeze totaling $648 million has compelled Benjamin Cowen to formally abandon his previous bearish stance, as Bitcoin's decisive push above the $85,000 mark has driven bears to flee their positions in droves.
This recovery of the critical price level signals a swift shift in market sentiment, moving away from expectations of a deep correction and toward a firmly bullish outlook, with Cowen's sudden reversal now serving as a key barometer for the current rally. Reviewing his analytical framework, the Into The Cryptoverse founder publicly admitted his error on September 21, at which point Bitcoin had already reached a high not seen since January.
Earlier, on September 8, he had calculated a 65% probability that the market had not yet bottomed, against a 35% chance it had, based on cyclical patterns observed in 2014, 2018, and 2022. He viewed the $53,000 level as a critical test point and projected that October could bring a cycle low, potentially descending as far as $44,000. However, the market defied this trajectory, surging past $80,000 and continuing upward, which completely invalidated his pessimistic projections derived from mid-year historical trends.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that CoinGlass recorded total short liquidations of $647.9 million within 24 hours, while the broader market liquidation total climbed to $746.6 million. Despite facing significant selling pressure, open interest has still grown by 7.59% to reach $156 billion, indicating that new capital is actively stepping in to absorb supply. This volatility in the derivatives market reflects the intensifying divergence and battle among traders over the path ahead.
Continuous institutional inflows have provided solid backing for the upward momentum. On Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $433 million, while Strategy (MSTR.US) added $75.7 million worth of Bitcoin to its holdings during the previous week, bringing its total stash to 846,000 coins. The combined effect of ETF demand, whale accumulation, and the cascading short squeeze has helped Bitcoin establish a new price baseline after several weeks of gains, marking a fundamental shift in the market's structure.
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