Overnight, London spot precious metals fluctuated, with gold prices having dropped sharply earlier and now showing demand for an oversold correction; in addition, long-end U.S. Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar retreated from highs, offering short-term support to gold prices.
On the economic data front, U.S. initial jobless claims data indicated that employment resilience remains strong, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December have not fully faded, keeping upside potential constrained. In the short term, gold is maintaining bottom-range fluctuations. In terms of data, the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3 fell to a seasonally adjusted 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, and remained near a 57-year low for the fourth consecutive week, indicating that the U.S. labor market retains some resilience. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that further rate hikes are still needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target, but they do not need to be implemented at consecutive meetings, and noted that the dot plot reflects a rate hike in early 2027 followed by cuts. On the geopolitical front, Middle East tensions escalated again, briefly driving oil prices sharply higher; however, Trump later said he would not attack Iran before the election, easing geopolitical tensions. Gold's movements show sensitivity to the "inflation-interest rate" transmission chain, so the escalation of Middle East tensions, oil prices remaining strong, along with rising long-end U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, ultimately keep current gold prices in a relatively weak trend.
Author: Li Qi
Practitioner Qualification: F3046227
Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145
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