Morgan Stanley: Sands China Ltd (01928) Q3 Performance Meets Expectations, Target Price HKD 21

Stock News10-23

According to reports, Morgan Stanley has released an analysis indicating that Sands China Ltd (01928) posted an EBITDA of USD 601 million in the third quarter (adjusted to USD 599 million), aligning with expectations. Morgan Stanley noted that the consensus for Sands China's EBITDA for the full year 2025 stands at USD 2.272 billion, implying a necessary quarter-over-quarter increase of 22% for Q4. The firm highlights that there are downside risks associated with this Q4 forecast. They maintain an 'Overweight' rating with a target price of HKD 21. During the quarter, the company's market share for mass gaming increased by 100 basis points to 25.4% compared to the previous quarter. Both premium mass (up 11% quarter-over-quarter) and base mass (up 7% quarter-over-quarter) segments outperformed the overall industry average (up 2% quarter-over-quarter). However, the reinvestment rate (as a percentage of mass revenue) continued to rise to 24%, marking an increase of 80 basis points from the last quarter. The competitive intensity remains high. Despite an improvement in business composition (mass revenue up 9% quarter-over-quarter, and VIP room revenue down 5%), the EBITDA margin remained stable at 31.5%, matching the previous quarter's level.

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