Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya previously argued that the compute contract between SpaceX and Anthropic contains a termination clause that SpaceX could use to sharply raise prices on the AI lab. On Sunday, Elon Musk rebutted this, saying the deal is not a one-sided bet.
Late Sunday on X, Musk wrote in response to an AI commentator Rohan Paul, who had reposted a clip of Palihapitiya's remarks: "Of course, it binds both sides. If compute supply is abundant and prices fall, SpaceX's revenue will decline too. In a casino, you win or lose on your own, and neither side has much to complain about."
On the All-In podcast aired Sunday, Palihapitiya said either party can terminate the cooperation with 90 days' notice. He argued that once data center supply tightens, SpaceX could exercise that right and, when renegotiating, raise prices to 2–3 times current levels, leaving Anthropic with almost no bargaining power. He reportedly called this "a one-move checkmate."
The termination clause itself is nothing new. In its May IPO filing, SpaceX disclosed that Anthropic will pay $1.25 billion per month to lease dedicated compute from SpaceX's Colossus cluster, with the contract running through May 2029 and a total value approaching $45 billion; both sides have the right to terminate with 90 days' notice. SpaceX's subsequent compute contracts with Google and Reflection AI also carry similar exit clauses.
What has changed is the political environment. Palihapitiya's judgment rests on a premise: the new Democratic governor may cancel data center tax incentives and slow down new construction approvals. The campaign platform of Texas's new governor Gina Hinojosa includes a pause on approving new data centers; Deutsche Bank analysts warned last week that SpaceX's compute project construction in Texas could be delayed. After the midterm election results came out, shares of SpaceX and Tesla Motors (TSLA) both fell.
Once supply slows, companies with ready compute resources will hold the advantage. SpaceX acquired xAI in February this year, first leasing compute externally to other AI labs before reserving it for Grok. At the Barron's investment conference on Friday, Musk said SpaceX "invests $35 billion and can generate $50 billion in revenue per year"; SpaceX needs only 8–9 months to build a data center, while competitors typically take two and a half years. He also mentioned that SpaceX expects annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion in December, with an optimistic estimate of reaching $500 billion by December 2027.
Musk's response highlights the other side of the clause. Anthropic has also signed large compute agreements with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. If that batch of compute comes online faster than new projects slow down, the AI lab also holds leverage and can choose to renegotiate or terminate the cooperation. Musk once described Anthropic as "undoubtedly the current leader in AI," and it has long been one of SpaceX's largest compute customers.
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