CMSC has released a research report stating that the accelerated development of commercial space, with low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites becoming a focal point of competition between China and the US, will drive corresponding rapid growth and potential upgrade iterations in supporting energy systems. Beyond the current mainstream gallium arsenide batteries, P-type PERC has already begun to be applied, while P-type HJT and perovskite-silicon tandem solutions are also under trial or development, showing promise as the next generation of space photovoltaics. The battery segment demands high energy density, reliability, and cycle performance; the power module, requiring radiation resistance, extreme thermal management, and high-efficiency DC-DC architecture, also presents significant technical barriers. The main views of CMSC are as follows: Commercial spaceflight is entering a new phase of rapid development. The United States leads the world in the number of operational spacecraft, with China following closely behind. Leveraging advantages such as low latency and wide coverage, LEO satellites have become a global deployment priority, accounting for nearly 70% of satellites in orbit. Both China and the US have planned to deploy tens of thousands of satellites to secure scarce frequency and orbital resources. At the policy level, both nations are guiding deep commercial capital participation through measures like establishing funds, streamlining approvals, and opening infrastructure, integrating corporate innovation into national space strategies. Meanwhile, leading companies represented by SpaceX, Amazon, and China's Star Network are accelerating constellation deployment and actively expanding new "space + digitalization" business models like space data centers and in-orbit computing. Satellite power systems differ significantly from terrestrial ones. The satellite power system is the core component ensuring stable power supply throughout a satellite's lifecycle, comprising solar power generation, lithium battery energy storage, and power management modules. Unlike terrestrial environments, satellite power systems face harsh challenges in space, including intense radiation, extreme temperature variations (exceeding 300°C), and atomic oxygen erosion in LEO, alongside high requirements for weight, reliability, and service life. Photovoltaic power generation will see continuous upgrades and new technology applications, with silicon and perovskite beginning trials. The power system accounts for approximately 20% of a satellite's cost, with nearly two-thirds of that attributed to the photovoltaic power generation segment; significantly reducing costs in this area is a key future industry objective. Gallium arsenide batteries, known for their excellent radiation resistance and temperature tolerance, are currently the mainstream choice for LEO satellites, with future potential for two-junction designs that reduce germanium usage. Overseas, P-type PERC silicon products have already been deployed, while P-type HJT solutions are undergoing testing or trials, and perovskite-silicon tandem cells have also begun testing. In the future, silicon or perovskite solutions may gradually see application and become important, or even mainstream, pathways. High-performance batteries and power systems are likely high-barrier, high-return segments. Satellite batteries demand high energy density, reliability, and cycle performance; meanwhile, power modules require radiation resistance, extreme thermal management, and high-efficiency DC-DC architecture, presenting substantial technical barriers. Core participants in these future segments are expected to achieve favorable profit returns. Investment recommendations: 1) Photovoltaic power generation-related: Junda Shares, Deke Shares, Dongfang Risheng, Maiwei Shares, Aotewei, Shanghai Gangwan, Ruihuatai, Jingsheng Electromechanical. 2) Battery and power-related: Xinleineng, Eve Energy, Weilan Lithium Core. Risk warnings: Commercial space development may fall short of expectations, significant disputes over technology routes exist, and competition could lead to poor profitability.
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