This week's A-share market performance: (1) During the week of March 30 to April 3, 2026, the A-share market experienced volatile adjustments, with major broad-based indices generally declining. The All-Share Index fell by 2.25%. Among the major indices, the ChiNext Index led the declines, dropping 4.44%, while the SSE 50 Index showed relative stability with a minor decrease of 0.24%. (2) From a style perspective, large-cap stocks outperformed this week. Most of the five major style indices declined, with the stable and growth styles seeing the largest drops, while the consumer style posted a slight gain of 0.08%. (3) By sector, most primary industries fell this week. Only communications, pharmaceuticals & biologics, food & beverage, and banking sectors recorded gains. Utilities, power equipment, and real estate were among the worst performers.
This week's capital flows: (1) Trading activity in the A-share market continued to cool. The average daily turnover for the week was 1,897 billion yuan, a decrease of 214.559 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate was 1.6693%, down 0.27 percentage points from the prior week. (2) As of Thursday, margin trading balances decreased while securities lending balances increased for the week. (3) Among newly established funds this week, there were 14 equity-focused funds, with issuance shares totaling 3.244 billion, a decrease of 13.879 billion shares from the previous week. Equity funds accounted for 63.32% of total issuance shares this week. (4) During the period from March 26 to April 1, global funds recorded a net outflow of $2.808 billion from A-shares, reversing from a net inflow of $355 million the prior period. Overseas funds specifically showed a net outflow of $1.069 billion, compared to a net inflow of $665 million previously.
This week's valuation changes: The PE (TTM) valuation for the All-Share Index decreased by 0.54% from the previous week to 22.36 times, placing it at the 89.38th percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation fell by 2.43% to 1.79 times, at the 47.21st percentile since 2010. The equity-bond yield spread for the All-Share Index was 2.6529%, near the -1.27 standard deviation level of its 3-year rolling average (3.3147%), and at the 48.19th percentile since 2010.
A-share market investment outlook: Externally, military conflicts between the US and Iran continue to escalate, with the prospects for a ceasefire agreement remaining unclear. A deadline of April 6 has been set, and Iran has expanded the intensity and scope of its retaliatory actions. Given the high uncertainty and unclear trajectory of the conflict, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment. The A-share market may exhibit rotational and volatile characteristics. Changes in crude oil price trends will remain a key variable influencing recent market structure. Rising oil prices boost global inflation expectations, leading to delayed expectations for interest rate cuts and a marginal tightening of global liquidity. This would reinforce the trading logic for energy substitution sectors and the protective role of defensive sectors, while simultaneously dampening the performance of offensive sectors like technology growth. Conversely, if expectations for conflict de-escalation later lead to a decline in oil prices and a rebound in expectations for monetary easing, it would favor a recovery in growth stock performance. Domestically, the core logic of policy support, capital inflows, and the revaluation of Chinese assets remains unchanged. External conflicts have not shaken the foundation for a medium- to long-term slow bull market in A-shares. Furthermore, as listed companies enter a concentrated earnings disclosure period in April, market focus will gradually shift to fundamental verification. Sectors with high earnings certainty and continuously improving景气度 will become the core focus for capital allocation.
Investment opportunities: Focus area one: Monitor trends in the US-Iran conflict driving strength in energy and substitution demand. Pay attention to coal, coal chemicals, new energy, shipping & ports, and oil & gas. Also watch for valuation repair potential in the non-ferrous metals sector. Focus area two: Defensive assets may have a temporary advantage. Monitor financials (banking), utilities, and transportation. Focus area three: The deterministic logic of technological innovation, self-sufficiency, and industrial trends. Focus on power equipment, energy storage, memory, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment. Within the consumer sector, focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishing, food & beverage, and household appliances. The medium- to long-term outlook remains positive for the dual themes of industry-driven technology sectors and price increase trends in cyclical sectors.
Risk warnings: External uncertainty risks; risks of policy measures falling short of expectations; risks of unstable market sentiment and ongoing liquidity adjustments.
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