Forecast data from a prediction market indicates that traders are betting on Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) posting second-quarter trading volumes below consensus analyst estimates.
Speculative traders on the Kalshi prediction platform broadly judge that Coinbase's total Q2 trading volume will be under $160 billion, missing the average expectation among analysts. This would mark the third consecutive quarter of declining trading volume for the cryptocurrency exchange, a trend linked to falling Bitcoin prices.
In the second quarter, Bitcoin prices trended lower again, and traders on the Kalshi prediction market believe Coinbase's trading volumes faced renewed pressure as a result. Market speculators are widely convinced that its quarterly total trading volume will fall below the $200 billion mark for the first time since the third quarter of 2024.
Based on market betting data, traders assign only a 41% probability to volumes exceeding $160 billion and a mere 25% chance of surpassing $170 billion. This contrasts with the consensus estimate of $168.5 billion from financial data firm FactSet. Conversely, the market is almost certain that volume will not drop below $150 billion, assigning a 99% probability to that scenario.
Coinbase Global, Inc. is scheduled to officially release its second-quarter financial results on July 30. The Kalshi platform offers corresponding contracts, allowing users to bet on whether Coinbase's trading volume will exceed various thresholds, with the final settlement value based on official data provided by the investment research platform Fiscal.ai.
Since Bitcoin's price peaked in October 2025, it has fallen nearly 50%, while Coinbase's stock price has plunged more than 55% over the same period. Following consecutive sharp declines in Bitcoin's price during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, Coinbase's trading volumes have correspondingly decreased for two straight quarters.
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