Abstract
ON Semiconductor will report fourth-quarter results on October 21, 2025, Post Market. The preview synthesizes recent company forecasts and market expectations to frame likely revenue, margin, and adjusted EPS outcomes alongside institutional sentiment through October 21, 2025.
Market Forecast
Consensus points to ON Semiconductor’s fourth-quarter revenue of $1.54 billion, gross profit margin near 37.86%, net profit margin near 16.44%, and adjusted EPS of $0.62, with year-over-year forecasts at -12.62% for revenue and -36.08% for EPS, and EBIT projected at $0.30 billion with a -37.75% year-over-year change. The company’s main business highlights continue to revolve around power solutions, analog and mixed signal, and intelligent sensing, with management focus on mix optimization and disciplined cost control amid cyclical softness. The most promising segment is the Power Solutions Group, contributing $0.74 billion last quarter and positioned to benefit from design-win carryover even as near-term auto and industrial unit demand remains uneven year over year.
Last Quarter Review
ON Semiconductor’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $1.55 billion, a gross profit margin of 37.86%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.26 billion, a net profit margin of 16.44%, and adjusted EPS of $0.63, with year-over-year growth rates at -11.98% for revenue and -36.36% for adjusted EPS. A key highlight was resilient profitability versus consensus as EBIT of $0.30 billion ran ahead of forecasts, supported by cost discipline and a favorable mix in higher-margin devices. Main business highlights included the Power Solutions Group at $0.74 billion, Analog and Mixed Signal Group at $0.58 billion, and Intelligent Sensing Group at $0.23 billion, reflecting a demand environment pressured by inventory digestion and delayed projects; year-over-year trends were negative across major lines.
Current Quarter Outlook
Power Solutions Group
The Power Solutions Group remains central to ON Semiconductor’s quarterly profile, given its scale at $0.74 billion last quarter and exposure to automotive and industrial power management. Near-term revenue is projected to decline in line with company-wide headwinds as unit volumes in auto and factory automation normalize after prior capacity expansions and inventory recalibrations. Pricing stability and tactical mix shifts toward higher-efficiency devices can help sustain margins even as revenue declines, and management’s efforts to align output with end-market demand should limit downside risk to profitability. Investors should watch backlog conversion dynamics and the cadence of design wins flowing into production, as these factors will influence whether revenue stabilizes in the coming quarters.
Analog and Mixed Signal Group
The Analog and Mixed Signal Group at $0.58 billion last quarter is expected to mirror broader semiconductor cyclicality, with cautious orders from industrial and consumer-related customers. Ongoing product rationalization and supply-chain optimization may protect gross margin even as topline trends soften year over year. The group’s ability to capture sockets in applications that favor power efficiency and reliability remains a differentiator, though visibility is limited by customer inventory management. Management’s emphasis on disciplined capacity planning and cost controls supports operating leverage protection, implying that incremental volume improvements will translate attractively into profit once demand normalizes.
Intelligent Sensing Group
The Intelligent Sensing Group’s $0.23 billion contribution underscores its smaller scale but strategic relevance in automotive imaging and industrial sensing. The near-term trajectory is constrained by project pushouts and uneven production schedules at downstream customers, which can weigh on revenue growth year over year. However, the segment benefits from secular content gains in ADAS and industrial vision; as OEM programs transition from development to ramp, the mix of higher-value sensing solutions should lift margins. The quarter’s stock price sensitivity may hinge on management commentary about pipeline conversion and the timing of next-phase deployments across automotive platforms.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The equity narrative will be shaped by the degree of revenue resilience relative to the $1.54 billion forecast, the sustainability of gross margin near 37.86%, and adjusted EPS performance around $0.62. Delivery versus guidance and commentary on inventory normalization across auto and industrial end markets will be critical to investor confidence. Any indication of improved bookings, accelerating design-win conversion in power and sensing, or stabilization in analog demand could temper cautious sentiment; conversely, signals of extended digestion or incremental pricing pressure might reinforce a conservative stance.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional commentary through October 21, 2025 skews cautious, with the majority emphasizing downside risk to revenue growth and EPS as automotive and industrial demand recalibrates and year-over-year comparisons remain negative. Analysts highlight the company’s margin discipline and cost control as partial offsets, yet maintain cautious expectations given the forecast for revenue of $1.54 billion (-12.62% year over year), adjusted EPS of $0.62 (-36.08% year over year), and EBIT of $0.30 billion (-37.75% year over year). The prevailing view expects near-term softness to persist while acknowledging that backlog quality and secular content growth in power and sensing could underpin recovery as the cycle turns.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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