Abstract
Collegium Pharmaceutical is scheduled to report first‑quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026 Pre-Market, with current projections centering on revenue of 186.60 million US dollars, EBIT of 78.73 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 1.59, alongside a review of recent product dynamics, sequential factors, and prevailing analyst sentiment.
Market Forecast
Based on current expectations for the first quarter of 2026, revenue is projected at 186.60 million US dollars, up 8.52% year over year, with EBIT estimated at 78.73 million US dollars, up 25.00% year over year, and adjusted EPS at 1.59, up 11.07% year over year; there is no explicit margin forecast, though the last reported gross margin stood at 89.49% and the net profit margin at 8.26% as a baseline reference.
Within the core portfolio, prescriptions and payer activity around the buprenorphine HCl and oxycodone ER franchises remain the central drivers of near‑term revenue and cash flow, with seasonal gross‑to‑net headwinds in the first quarter shaping sequential trends. The franchise with the most visible incremental opportunity remains Jornay PM, which delivered 148.86 million US dollars in product revenue in the last reported breakdown; management and the market will focus on execution cadence that positions this asset and adjacent ADHD exposure for acceleration later in the year.
Last Quarter Review
In the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Collegium Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 205.45 million US dollars, gross profit margin of 89.49%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.96 million US dollars, net profit margin of 8.26%, and adjusted EPS of 2.04; revenue grew 12.92% year over year and adjusted EPS grew 15.25% year over year. EBIT expanded strongly to 60.76 million US dollars, reflecting a 59.42% year‑over‑year increase, signaling solid operating leverage exiting 2025 despite typical fourth‑quarter spending cadence and setup for first‑quarter plans.
Main business highlights showed the buprenorphine HCl franchise generating 221.65 million US dollars, oxycodone ER at 199.31 million US dollars, tapentadol HCl at 196.30 million US dollars, Jornay PM at 148.86 million US dollars, and Symproic at 14.45 million US dollars in the most recent portfolio breakdown, underscoring the breadth of the company’s pain and specialty offerings. Separately, on February 26, 2026, reported adjusted EPS of 2.04 and sales of 205.45 million US dollars were noted as a slight miss versus street expectations, a dynamic that sharpened the market’s focus on the first‑quarter setup and gross‑to‑net progression.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Buprenorphine HCl and Oxycodone ER franchises
The mainstay products—buprenorphine HCl and oxycodone ER—anchor the revenue base and are expected to dictate most of the quarter’s cash generation and forecasting confidence. In the first quarter, the market typically monitors seasonality tied to deductible resets and payer dynamics, which can press gross‑to‑net and weigh on sequential revenue and EPS while leaving year‑over‑year comparisons intact. Against this backdrop, the forecast for 186.60 million US dollars of revenue and 1.59 adjusted EPS embeds a sequential normalization from the fourth quarter while assuming steady demand flow and disciplined contracting. Price and mix are expected to remain constructive, but payer mix and pharmacy benefit dynamics can tilt realized net pricing, which is why the high 89.49% gross margin from the preceding quarter is used as a directional reference rather than a firm guide for this quarter. The street’s 25.00% year‑over‑year EBIT growth estimate implies a tighter cost envelope and improved efficiency, suggesting SG&A discipline even as the company supports patient access and physician engagement for these core brands.
Most promising business: Jornay PM and ADHD adjacency
Jornay PM continues to represent a differentiated asset with identifiable seasonal patterns that typically skew contribution to later quarters; nonetheless, tracking weekly prescription settlements and coverage breadth this quarter gives an early read on momentum into mid‑year. The recent revenue level of 148.86 million US dollars in the portfolio breakdown underscores that Jornay PM is already material in aggregate terms and offers room for operating leverage as awareness and persistency improve. For the current quarter, expectations are restrained by seasonality, but execution on access, patient starts, and adherence provides signals for the back half. The announced plan on March 19, 2026 to acquire Azstarys for 650.00 million US dollars in cash adds an adjacent ADHD asset with potential complementarity to Jornay PM over time; while not expected to contribute to this quarter’s revenue, commentary on integration timelines, launch preparedness, and combined commercial footprint can influence how investors handicap the ADHD trajectory. This adjacency positions the company to broaden its presence in attention disorders and, with disciplined commercialization, could expand the revenue base and smooth seasonality through a multi‑brand approach.
Key stock price drivers this quarter
Three elements are likely to have the greatest impact on the stock around the print and guide: the quality of revenue relative to seasonal gross‑to‑net assumptions, the sustainability of expense control implied by the 25.00% year‑over‑year EBIT growth forecast, and any updates related to business development and the 2026 outlook. The consensus profile—revenue up 8.52% year over year, EPS up 11.07%, and EBIT up 25.00%—implicitly assumes a firmer margin framework through operating leverage, so investors will scrutinize the balance between commercial spend and realized net pricing to validate that path. Commentary on the announced Azstarys transaction, including closing expectations and one‑time costs, could affect near‑term EPS modeling ranges and the multiple investors assign to forward earnings. Cash deployment priorities, whether toward integration, debt obligations, or continued shareholder returns, will shape perceptions of balance sheet flexibility referenced by recent analysts. Finally, any incremental color on script trends across buprenorphine HCl, oxycodone ER, and tapentadol HCl—particularly the degree of sequential moderation from the fourth quarter—will likely move estimates and the shares.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views currently dominate, with a 100% bullish skew among recent opinions in the first four months of 2026. On February 10, 2026, Truist raised its price target to 58.00 US dollars and maintained a Buy rating, citing constructive visibility into execution and an improving 2026 earnings profile. Needham maintained a Buy rating with a 56.00 US dollars target, emphasizing confident leadership, attractive valuation, and upside optionality from business development. Across these perspectives, the through‑line is that revenue growth of 8.52% year over year and EBIT growth of 25.00% year over year for the current quarter, if realized, would support an expanding earnings base and improved operating leverage. Analysts also highlight that the February 26, 2026 outcome—adjusted EPS of 2.04 on revenue of 205.45 million US dollars—provides a clean comparator for modeling the first‑quarter reset, with upside potential if gross‑to‑net proves more benign than typical seasonality. The announced plan on March 19, 2026 to acquire Azstarys for 650.00 million US dollars is viewed as a strategically sound expansion that, once integrated, could enhance the ADHD footprint and diversify growth, though the street expects limited impact on the current quarter’s financials. In sum, the majority opinion anticipates a constructive print featuring year‑over‑year growth in revenue and EPS, disciplined spending that supports a stronger EBIT trajectory, and catalysts in the ADHD portfolio that can extend the growth runway into 2026, with execution on pricing, payer dynamics, and integration milestones serving as the main validation points.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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