On Friday, April 10, spot gold traded within a narrow range around $4770 during the early Asian session. This week, the price of gold has been trapped at a crossroads between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic data, with a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces. The release of the US March CPI data today is expected to act as a key catalyst to break the deadlock and set the tone for the near-term trend.
From a market perspective: if inflation comes in higher than expected, the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts would further diminish, likely leading to a US dollar rebound and putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if the data is moderate, or if there are substantive signals of de-escalation in the Middle East, gold could regain upward momentum. The core appeal of gold consistently lies in its multiple roles as a safe-haven asset, an inflation hedge, and a quality choice for hedging against fiat currency depreciation.
Currently, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains fragile. Any news of escalating conflict or disruptions to energy supply could reignite enthusiasm for gold. In the long term, structural demand amid global uncertainties continues to support gold's trend of fluctuating at high levels with an upward bias. However, recent news has had limited impact, and price movements have lacked continuity. The market is likely to find a clear direction only after the CPI data is released.
It is essential to continuously monitor developments in Middle East negotiations, the restoration of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and signals from Federal Reserve policy. Even with short-term volatility, gold's status as a "crisis currency" retains unique value in the turbulent environment anticipated through 2026.
Reviewing this week's market activity, it has fully aligned with earlier forecasts. When gold fell to $4700 on Thursday, it was clearly advised to avoid following the trend and blindly anticipating further downside, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady approach. A firm rebound was expected above $4700, targeting $4800. The market confirmed this outlook, as gold prices rallied from $4700 directly to $4800 on Thursday, matching the prediction precisely. During the late session, gold retreated from around $4801 to close near $4757, indicating the market has re-entered a wait-and-see mode ahead of the CPI release.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term core range is firmly set between $4700 and $4800, and a breakout is considered unlikely in the immediate term. Key support lies at $4700, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band on both the daily and 4-hour charts, providing strong technical and sentiment-based support. As long as this level holds, the probability of an upward move remains high. Immediate resistance is observed at $4800, with further resistance at the week's high of $4860. A risk warning: an unexpected break below $4700 could trigger a deeper correction towards the $4600 low.
Therefore, the trading strategy for today is clear. Within the range: adopt a range-trading approach without fixating on a specific direction, executing buy-low and sell-high tactics. After a breakout: if the price holds firmly above $4700, anticipate a fluctuating upward move towards $4800-$4860. If $4700 is broken, a decline towards $4600 would be expected. An important reminder: the March CPI data is unlikely to trigger a sustained one-way move; choppy, back-and-forth price action is highly probable. Avoid aggressive trend-following to prevent being stopped out.
Regarding domestic gold: For long-term positions, success depends on patience and adherence to the trend, holding firm until the direction becomes clearer. For short-term trading, the core objective is the gradual accumulation of profits. As analyzed on Thursday, domestic gold is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, where pullbacks present buying opportunities, initially targeting 11055 yuan/gram. Thursday's rebound peaked precisely near 10555 yuan/gram, validating the analysis. The underlying market logic remains unchanged, and the strategy stays consistent: long-term players should continue holding positions; short-term traders can consider entering again if the price revisits the 10300 yuan/gram area, maintaining an upside target around 10600 yuan/gram. Even if the CPI data causes significant volatility tonight, it is believed that domestic gold is unlikely to fall below 10200 yuan/gram, suggesting no need for excessive panic.
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