This week, there is limited fundamental news specific to vegetable oils, with the primary driver for the rebound being more linked to the strength in U.S. crude oil. Additionally, Canadian canola futures followed the rise in U.S. soybean oil, as the market grew more concerned about increased demand for Canadian canola due to reduced European rapeseed production. Furthermore, there are ongoing issues with the arrival of imported non-GMO canola oil (primarily from Russia) at Chinese ports, suggesting that near-month canola oil inventory build-up may fall short of expectations. The strength in non-GMO canola oil spot prices is also supporting prices for genetically modified canola oil.
As of July 13, the good-to-excellent rating for canola in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 76%, higher than the 60% from the same period in 2025 and the 68% from the same period in 2024, placing it at a relatively high level historically for this time of year. As of July 14, the good-to-excellent rating for canola in Alberta was 56%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the 64% from the same period in 2025 and the 72% from the same period in 2024, but higher than the 44% from the same period in 2023, positioning it at a medium level historically. With recent rainfall decreasing in Canada, the risk of overly wet soil is diminishing, and soil moisture levels have begun to decline. Recently, some consulting agencies have also lowered European rapeseed production estimates by 300,000 tonnes, though the reduction is less than that for grains, as dry and hot conditions have caused less damage to rapeseed. Neither the European biodiesel industry nor the domestic Canadian biodiesel industry is in a robust state, meaning their support for canola and canola oil prices is unlikely to be long-lasting. Soil moisture conditions have improved in Germany and France but not in Poland. Attention should be paid to the issue of Russian non-GMO canola oil imports into China.
Historically, Malaysian palm oil production in July increases by an average of about 8% month-on-month. After June, producing regions enter a period of rapid production growth. Compared to Indonesia, soil moisture conditions in Malaysia have not deteriorated since the start of July and are better than in Indonesia. Due to some shipping delays for Malaysian palm oil in June, apparent consumption appeared elevated. Exports in July are in an increasing phase, but unless there are further shipping delays in July, apparent consumption for the month is expected to decline. It is anticipated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory by the end of July.
In the short term, the rebound in U.S. crude oil and U.S. soybean oil is unlikely to alter the current fundamentals of the vegetable oil market, as supply and demand have not yet shown significant changes. Only if WTI crude oil returns to above $90 per barrel would biodiesel margins in the vegetable oil sector see a clear and substantial improvement. Historically, June and July are seasonal lows for vegetable oils, but the initiation of a sustained uptrend still relies on a pickup in demand, particularly imports from major consuming countries like India. After all, palm oil producing regions are set to accumulate inventory starting in July. However, it is worth noting that South American soybean oil exports are expected to decline later, and additionally, the U.S. imposition of additional tariffs on Canadian goods does not include canola and canola oil.
Producing Regions
International Vegetable Oil and Oilseed FOB Prices
As of July 17, 2026, prices for most vegetable oils rose, with U.S. soybean oil and European soybean oil posting significant gains, while Argentine soybean oil declined on a weekly basis.
As of July 17, 2026, prices for most oilseeds increased, with canola prices showing notable gains, particularly for Canadian canola.
International Vegetable Oil FOB Spreads
The weekly spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $25 per tonne, compared to $35 per tonne the previous week. The historical average is $23 per tonne.
The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$67 per tonne, compared to -$70 per tonne the previous week. The historical average is $116 per tonne.
International Canola Spreads
As of July 17, Canadian canola futures strengthened alongside U.S. soybean oil, with Canadian canola prices firm on a weekly basis.
Indian Port Vegetable Oil Spreads
As of July 17, the spread between crude soybean oil and crude palm oil at Indian ports was $57 per tonne, compared to $37 per tonne the previous week. The spread between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $220 per tonne, compared to $225 per tonne the previous week. The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $5 per tonne, compared to $21 per tonne the previous week.
Import and Crushing Margins
According to incomplete statistics, five cargoes of Australian canola were traded last week, primarily for October to December shipment.
No palm oil purchase deals were reported.
Weather Conditions
Palm Oil Producing Region Weather
Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Region Weather
Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Region Weather
Soil Moisture in Germany, Poland, and France
Canadian Soil Moisture
Demand Side
Weekly Vegetable Oil Trading
Trading of deferred soybean oil basis contracts increased on a weekly basis.
Vegetable Oil Spot Basis
Canola oil basis continued to strengthen on a weekly basis, palm oil basis remained stable, while soybean oil basis saw a slight decline.
Vegetable Oil Inventory
Vegetable Oil Spot Price Spreads
Vegetable Oil Monthly Balance Sheet
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