At 24:00 on May 21st, the window for the new round of adjustments to the domestic refined oil retail price ceiling will open, with multiple institutions forecasting a slight increase. According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, domestic price adjustments are primarily based on the change rate calculated by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil over 10 working days with the weighted average price from the previous cycle. If the corresponding adjustment amount per ton is less than RMB 50, prices for gasoline and diesel will remain unchanged, with the unadjusted amount carried over to the next price adjustment cycle. During this pricing cycle, renewed instability in U.S.-Iran relations led to a broad rise in oil prices driven by market concerns. Overall, the average crude oil price for this period increased compared to the previous cycle. Consequently, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive, indicating an expected minor increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling. According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on May 19th, the 9th working day, the reference crude oil change rate was 2.01%, with an expected increase of RMB 90 per ton for gasoline and diesel. The adjustment window is set for 24:00 on May 21st. "With one working day remaining until the adjustment window opens, an increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling is highly likely, with the final adjustment potentially exceeding RMB 100 per ton," said Wang Luqing, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information. Based on this estimate, the increase per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0-diesel is expected to be around 9 cents. Filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline would cost approximately RMB 4.5 more. Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, also predicted that at 24:00 on May 21st, the domestic refined oil retail price ceiling adjustment window will open again, with an increase of around RMB 90 per ton. For a 70-liter fuel tank, private car owners would spend about RMB 5 more to fill up. So far this year, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in "seven increases, one decrease, and one hold." Compared to the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by RMB 2,505 and RMB 2,415 per ton, respectively. According to Longzhong Information's calculations, after this round of adjustments, the pattern for 2026 will change to "eight increases, one decrease, and one hold." It is important to note that while the industry generally expects an increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling, the final adjustment will be based on the official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.
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