A-share Index Sees Single-Day V-Shaped Reversal, Xiangcai Securities Says a Near-Term Bottom Is Forming

Deep News10-25 15:00

A-share indices staged a single-day V-shaped reversal, according to Xiangcai Securities Co., Ltd.

Based on Wind data for October 19-23, 2026, among the six A-share indices we track, all except the STAR Market Composite Index, which rose 1.42%, continued to trend lower in choppy trade: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.09%, the ChiNext Index slid 3.18%, the CSI 300 lost 1.57%, and the Wind All A Index declined 0.58%. The ChiNext Index posted the largest weekly amplitude at 10.67%.

Most A-share indices continued to fluctuate lower during October 19-23, 2026, but the price action on October 23 took the form of a V-shaped reversal. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below the 3,600-point mark on October 23 before strengthening through choppy trading and closing higher on the day, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index even formed a bullish engulfing pattern.

Against the backdrop of a prior streak of sharp weakness, this single-day V-shaped reversal is more an emotional repair than a profit-driven full-scale turnaround, and the Shanghai Composite Index may build a near-term bottom around the 3,700-point level in the sessions ahead.

At the secondary industry level, glass and fiberglass and electronic components led year-to-date gains

Based on Wind data, among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, decliners outnumbered gainers last week. The top weekly gainers were computers and machinery equipment, up 5.21% and 3.01% respectively, while the biggest laggards were conglomerates and coal, both down 4.12%. By comparison, technology-related sectors showed divergence, with computers advancing while telecommunications remained relatively weak.

Based on Wind data, among the 124 Shenwan secondary industries (excluding forestry), the top weekly gainers last week were electrical machinery II and consumer electronics, with weekly gains of 13.80% and 7.33% respectively. The top year-to-date gainers in 2026 were glass and fiberglass and electronic components, with cumulative gains of 37.60% and 31.01% respectively. The top weekly decliners were batteries and real estate services, with weekly losses of 7.90% and 6.37% respectively. The top year-to-date decliners in 2026 were energy metals and aerospace equipment II, which fell 43.25% and 40.86% respectively.

Judging from the weekly performance of Shenwan secondary industries, the leading gainers, electrical machinery II and consumer electronics, were consistent with the top primary industries, indicating that the market's rebound momentum has become relatively concentrated and the persistence of strong sectors has strengthened somewhat.

Investment recommendations

From a longer-term perspective, 2026 is the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and China will continue to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy. However, the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy from rate cuts at the start of the year to rate hikes has intensified market volatility.

From a shorter-term perspective, as the macro short cycle shows signs of topping out, combined with the spillover of volatility in overseas technology sectors into the domestic market, the A-share market has broken below its July low and shows a pattern of successively lower lows. Although the weak tone in October is already established, a single-day V-shaped reversal has emerged after the market's rapid plunge, and the Shanghai Composite Index may once again build a near-term bottom around the 3,700-point level. We recommend focusing weekly on computers and machinery equipment and other related sectors that are strengthening at this stage.

Risk warnings

Internationally: from a long-cycle perspective, China-U.S. competition will persist; on geopolitical conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts continue to pose significant uncertainty for the world.

Domestically: the China-U.S. trade conflict has eased for now, but there is a risk it could be interrupted by other factors; investment in China's real estate sector has declined further, continuing to drag on the growth of fixed-asset investment; and China's macro leverage ratio has exceeded 300% for six consecutive quarters, constraining the room for continued short-term policy easing.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment