According to Woofun AI, XRP issued by Ripple and XLM issued by Stellar suffered a synchronized sharp decline amid fierce competition in the international remittance and RWA tokenization sectors, with weekly losses for both exceeding 12%.
Although ChatGPT's scenario analysis suggests XRP has greater upside potential, network activity has not directly translated into price support, and the lack of actual investment demand has become the core contradiction.
On the 9th, CoinMarketCap data showed XRP quoted at $1.11 and XLM at $0.15, with weekly declines of 12.2% and 12.1% respectively, significantly underperforming Bitcoin, which fell only 3% over the same period.
The stagnation of ETF capital flows further weakened market sentiment. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that between the 5th and 6th, net inflows into XRP spot ETFs were zero dollars, and their net asset size shrank from $1.51 billion on October 28 to $1.34 billion on November 6. Although cumulative net inflows remain at $1.81 billion, the decline in asset value is mainly attributable to the drop in coin price rather than large-scale redemptions.
The on-chain ecosystem shows divergence: Token Terminal data indicates that the market cap of Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD grew by $228.8 million over the past month, while the scale of tokenized credit funds on the XRP chain decreased by $274 million. In comparison, although Stellar was included as a default supported network by MetaMask at the end of October, XLM still plummeted 25.1% over the past 30 days, failing to halt its decline.
AI predictions for 2028 paint a completely different valuation picture. A ChatGPT scenario analysis conducted on the 8th indicated a target price of $2.50 for XRP and $0.30 for XLM, implying gains of 125% and 100% respectively from current prices. However, achieving these targets faces enormous market cap gaps: if XRP reaches $2.50, based on current circulating supply, its market cap would need to expand to $158.8 billion, more than double the previously analyzed $70.6 billion, and as future circulating supply increases, the required market cap would climb even further. For Stellar, if circulating supply increases to 35.4 billion coins and the price reaches $0.30, its market cap would reach $10.6 billion, roughly double the current $5.3 billion.
In the RWA tokenization sector, the scale of tokenized assets on the XRP chain is approximately $5 billion, leading Stellar's $2.75 billion. It is worth noting that even if the RWA market expands, it does not necessarily drive demand for native tokens. For example, although RLUSD enhances payment functionality, it may not directly boost demand for holding XRP.
Short-term technicals and long-term observation indicators are equally critical. AI analysis gives XRP a 2028 price range of $0.65 to $5, with $1.37 (50-day moving average) and $1.57 (90-day high) constituting major resistance, and a break below $0.99 potentially triggering a deeper decline. Stellar's first test is whether it can reclaim the $0.20 level. Future trends will depend on the actual increase in users and trading volume after MetaMask integration, whether cumulative net inflows into XRP spot ETFs can surpass $1.81 billion, and whether Stellar's tokenized asset scale can once again approach the level of the XRP chain. These variables will determine the final competitive landscape of the two major networks.
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