While nearly all major Wall Street banks project double-digit gains for the S&P 500 next year, Bank of America (BofA) has taken a more cautious stance.
With the S&P 500 closing at around 6,830 points on December 3, BofA's year-end 2026 target of 7,100 implies a mere 4% upside—a stark contrast to the 15%-20% annual gains investors have grown accustomed to.
Here’s how major banks compare in their 2026 S&P 500 outlooks (based on 6,830 points): - **Deutsche Bank**: 8,000 (+17%) – Most bullish on Wall Street, betting on robust earnings. - **Bank of America**: 7,100 (+4%) – Warns market liquidity has been "drained." - **Morgan Stanley**: 7,800 (+14%) – Cites AI capex and "rolling recovery" as catalysts. - **JPMorgan**: 7,500 (+10%) – Bases forecast on 13%-15% earnings growth from AI "super cycle." - **Goldman Sachs**: 7,600 (+11%) – Expects steady momentum through late 2026. - **HSBC**: 7,500 (+10%) – Sees AI investments buoying markets despite economic volatility. - **RBC**: 7,750 (+13.5%) – Maintains mid-teens upside over 12 months.
**BofA’s Core Argument: Liquidity "Dried Up"** BofA argues that market "fuel" is running thin: - **Weaker Buybacks**: Q2 2025 S&P 500 buybacks totaled $234.6B, down 20% QoQ and flat YoY. - **Surge in Capex**: Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon plan ~$370B in 2025 capex, mostly for AI/data centers. - **Tighter Liquidity**: The Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk to $6.6T from $9T, with $2.2T in QT since June 2022.
**"AI Turbulence": Not a Bubble, but Not Safe Either** BofA stops short of calling AI a bubble but warns of an "air pocket"—where hype remains, but upward momentum falters. The bank notes some underlying strength: - S&P 500 earnings grew 13.4% YoY in Q3 2025, marking four straight quarters of double-digit growth. - 195 IPOs raised $36.4B in 2025, though far below the pandemic peak of 397 deals/$142B.
Yet risks loom as hyperscalers pivot to capital-intensive models with unclear near-term monetization paths, potentially turning earnings pressure into a "default state."
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