CITIC Securities recently released a research report stating that Kling, as a globally leading AI video generation model under Kuaishou-W (01024), has become a core variable influencing the company's valuation. With continuous model capability iterations and expanding application scenarios, Kling's revenue compound annual growth rate is projected to reach 104% from 2025 to 2030, with revenue potentially approaching 400 billion yuan by 2030.
The report estimates that Kling's revenue will grow from approximately 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 3.5 billion yuan in 2026, further reaching roughly 8.8 billion yuan and 17.1 billion yuan in 2027 and 2028, respectively. By 2030, Kling's revenue is expected to approach approximately 39.6 billion yuan. CITIC Securities believes Kling is positioned as a "new type of infrastructure for video creation in the AGI era," having established a comprehensive one-stop creation system covering video generation, editing, and workflows. It is expected to enter multiple professional scenarios, including self-media content production, advertising, short dramas, and film and television productions.
Based on metrics such as the number of global professional content creators, user penetration rates, payment rates, and ARPPU, the report estimates that Kling's global monthly active users could exceed 60 million by 2030, with the payment rate rising to 20%. In terms of market space, the report projects that the total AI video generation market size for professional content creation, advertising design and production, micro-short dramas, and films will reach approximately 45 billion U.S. dollars by 2030. Considering the high industry requirements for computing power, data, talent, and technical capabilities, the AI video generation field is more likely to form an oligopolistic pattern of differentiated competition among leading players, rather than a "winner-takes-all" scenario.
CITIC Securities indicates that Kling has formed comprehensive barriers in strategic investment, computing power reserves, video data, core talent, technological iteration, and commercialization. With the closure of overseas Sora business, the slowdown of Veo iteration, and the rising popularity of Kling 3.0 in the global market, Kling is expected to continue solidifying its leading position, becoming one of the long-term core oligopolists in the AI video track. On the operational front, Kling's single-quarter revenue grew from 150 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 to 650 million yuan in the first quarter of 2026. As of March 2026, its annualized recurring revenue (ARR) reached 500 million U.S. dollars, achieving a full 5x growth from 100 million U.S. dollars in March 2025. Currently, Kling's overall revenue is composed of 60% from subscription business and 40% from enterprise API services, with the overseas market contributing 70% of total revenue.
The report also points out that the synergy value between Kling and Kuaishou's core business has not yet been individually accounted for. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Kuaishou's AIGC advertising consumption was approximately 4 billion yuan, with related applications covering scenarios such as AIGC advertising materials, digital human solutions, and small and medium customer marketing tools. Regarding valuation, CITIC Securities adopts a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a 10x price-to-earnings ratio to Kuaishou's core business and referencing Kling's latest post-investment valuation of 18 billion U.S. dollars. This calculates the incremental valuation contribution of Kling to Kuaishou at approximately 105 billion yuan. The institution maintains a "Buy" rating on Kuaishou with a target price of 80 Hong Kong dollars.
Comments