Three major U.S. stock index futures are all trading lower in Tuesday pre-market action. As of the latest check, Dow futures are down 0.48%, S&P 500 futures are off 0.43%, and Nasdaq futures have slipped 0.93%.
European markets are also under pressure, with Germany's DAX down 1.08%, the UK's FTSE 100 falling 0.67%, France's CAC 40 dropping 0.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 losing 0.59%. In commodities, WTI crude is up 2.03% at $87.50 per barrel, while Brent crude has surged 3.89% to $91.81 per barrel.
Oil prices and Treasury yields climb on renewed Iran tensions
A fresh round of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, following a month-long lull, has reignited market concerns. Combined with expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to combat inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed more than 2 basis points to 4.782%, the highest level since January. The 30-year yield has also risen over 2 basis points to 5.273%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield stands at 4.35%. Money market data shows traders now price in nearly a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting.
A $215 billion wave of corporate bond issuance threatens to erase Treasury buyback support
Although Treasury Secretary Bessent surprised markets last month by expanding repurchases of older bonds to curb rising yields, many investors remain unconvinced of a sustained reversal. Following a record issuance month in August, September is expected to see approximately $215 billion in corporate bond sales, a supply wave that could offset the Treasury's buying efforts. Meanwhile, few anticipate that concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, which have been weighing on government bonds, will ease anytime soon. Adding to the pressure, the September Fed meeting will test Chairman Kevin Warsh's resolve to hike rates amid stubborn inflation. If the central bank hesitates, selling pressure on long-dated Treasuries is expected to intensify. Because longer-dated bonds are more vulnerable to inflation concerns, any sign that the Fed will hold rates steady despite accelerating consumer prices could push investors further away from the beleaguered 30-year note.
Market may be getting ahead of itself on rate hike bets
Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium quickly shifted market expectations on the U.S. rate path. Before his speech, markets had largely assumed the Fed would likely wait until at least December before raising rates. But following his comments, the probability of a September hike jumped sharply. However, the market's pricing for a move may be running too far ahead. Before the Fed makes its decision, it will receive a series of key economic data, and current inflation and employment figures do not yet present a clear consensus that demands an immediate hike. The jobs market will be one of the most critical indicators to watch. U.S. nonfarm payrolls have now been weak for three consecutive months—if this week's employment data continues to soften, it would further undermine the case for immediate tightening. Inflation data is equally important. July's PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year, with core PCE up 3.3%. However, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean indicator, which excludes extreme price swings, sits at just 2.3%, already close to the 2% policy target. Before the September meeting, the Fed will also receive CPI, PPI, and additional employment data. Should any of these show clear signs of cooling, current rate hike pricing could quickly unwind.
Castle Securities warns of deteriorating risk-reward in U.S. stocks
September is typically the worst month of the year for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500's average monthly return at its lowest. Now that options prices are also at their cheapest levels this year, the risk-reward profile for buying downside protection looks increasingly attractive. That's the core thesis from Scott Rubner, head of equities and equity derivatives strategy at Castle Securities. Rubner notes that the bullish dynamics that drove the S&P 500 to record highs in August are shifting. He flags the earnings calendar, stock buyback outlook, seasonal factors, and retail trading patterns as reasons for caution. "Taken together, they change the short-term asymmetry. Upside catalysts are becoming less obvious while downside catalysts are accumulating."
JPMorgan turns cautious on U.S. stocks in wake of Warsh's hawkish comments
Following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech last week, markets have significantly raised their bets on further rate hikes this year, making policy uncertainty one of the key near-term pressures on U.S. equities. JPMorgan's trading desk has consequently abandoned its previously bullish stance on U.S. stocks, adopting a cautious view for the coming weeks. The bank emphasized, however, that this does not mean it has turned bearish. JPMorgan believes U.S. economic data and corporate earnings remain supportive and that the equity market's fundamentals are still solid. It simply expects that multiple short-term uncertainties could push stocks into a consolidation phase ahead of the Fed's next rate decision on September 16.
Tech stocks slip in pre-market trading
Major technology names are broadly lower in Tuesday's pre-market session. As of the latest check, SanDisk is down over 3%, while Micron Technology, SK Hynix, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, and Intel have each fallen more than 2%. AMD and Oracle are off nearly 2%, and Qualcomm, Amazon, SpaceX, Broadcom, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have slipped more than 1%. Optical communications stocks are also under pressure, with Marvell Technology down nearly 3%, Astera Labs and Corning falling over 2%, and Coherent, Lumentum, Credo Technology, and Nokia losing close to 2%.
Tesla's European registrations show stark divergence: +279% in France but -79% in Norway
Tesla's vehicle registration data across several European markets in August painted a mixed picture—France and Denmark saw sharp year-over-year surges, while Norway and Sweden recorded significant declines. According to local automotive industry data, new Tesla registrations, typically seen as a leading indicator of sales, jumped 279% year-over-year in France and rose 104% in Denmark. Meanwhile, registrations fell 79% in Norway and dropped 41% in Sweden. After two consecutive years of declining annual sales, Tesla's European sales are showing signs of recovery this year, supported by a low comparison base from the same period last year, higher fuel prices, government purchase incentives, and sustained growth in electric vehicle demand. Registration data from the UK and Germany, two of Europe's largest auto markets, will be released later this week.
Amazon faces lawsuit from FTC and 22 states over alleged auction manipulation
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission and multiple states have filed a joint lawsuit against Amazon, accusing the e-commerce giant of systematically overcharging advertisers by more than $20 billion since 2019. The complaint alleges that Amazon misled 1.2 million advertisers—including over 500,000 small and medium-sized businesses—regarding the pricing and terms of its so-called "Sponsored Listings," the products featured at the top of user search results on its marketplace. The FTC and 22 state attorneys general claim Amazon executed the alleged misconduct by manipulating the auction process used to set advertising prices on its platform. The lawsuit could result in billions of dollars in civil penalties.
Broadcom unveils private AI cloud and agent governance push at VMware Explore
At the VMware Explore 2026 conference in Las Vegas, Broadcom showcased its latest developments in AI agent governance, open-source security, and data sovereignty. The semiconductor giant formally launched VMware Private AI Cloud, providing enterprises with a production-ready path to securely build, run, and govern inference workloads, agent applications, and traditional enterprise workloads on a unified private cloud platform. This means businesses can now run AI production tasks in their own on-premise environments. Broadcom also introduced VMware AI Factory as the software-defined foundation for the private AI cloud. Additionally, the company unveiled several new solutions focused on AI agent behavior control and governance, including AgentMinder, VMware vDefend, and the VMware Avi load balancer.
Novartis' neuroimmunology pipeline delivers mixed results: CAR-T trial paused after patient deaths, while MS oral drug succeeds in late-stage trials
Novartis paused eight clinical trials of an experimental therapy for autoimmune and neurological diseases in late August following the deaths of three patients. The experimental treatment, known as chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy (CAR-T), was under investigation for these indications. However, the company received positive news on another front. Its experimental oral medication for multiple sclerosis succeeded in two late-stage clinical trials, positioning it as a potential new oral therapy for the central nervous system autoimmune disease. Novartis reported that patients treated with remibrutinib showed reduced relapse rates and fewer brain lesions compared with those receiving teriflunomide, with no liver safety signals observed.
Key economic data and events on the calendar
At 22:00 Beijing time: U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI
At 22:00 Beijing time: U.S. July JOLTs Job Openings
Earnings preview
Wednesday morning: Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Credo Technology, MongoDB, GitLab
Wednesday pre-market: Yatsen Holding
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