A new official decree reveals that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has banned the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. The DRC is the world's largest cobalt producer and the second-largest copper producer, following Chile. In 2025, the country's copper exports grew nearly 10% year-over-year, reaching 3.4 million tonnes. The decree, signed on June 29 by DRC's Mining Minister Louis Watum, Foreign Trade Minister Julien Paluku Kahongwa, and Economics Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba, explicitly prohibits the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. While the ban is effective immediately, one-year export exemptions may be granted in "strategic situations."
Following the news, international copper prices surged sharply after 5:00 PM Beijing time on August 6. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched $14,369.5 per tonne, a daily gain of 1.8%, approaching the all-time high of $14,527.5 per tonne set in January of this year. Analysts point to the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, the world's fourth-largest, as a major source of uncertainty, as it continues to export some concentrates under exemption. However, given the multi-year efforts of major mining companies to build local processing capacity, the new ban is not expected to severely impact most operators in the country.
Official data shows that the DRC primarily exports refined copper. In the first quarter of this year, the country exported 696,725 tonnes of copper cathode and 53,926 tonnes of copper concentrate containing 18,863 tonnes of copper metal. During the same period, the DRC also exported 51,940 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide, containing 17,054 tonnes of cobalt metal. Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guoxin Futures, stated that this sudden policy introduces a new round of hard constraints on the global copper and cobalt supply chain. Given that the DRC supplies about 70% of the world's cobalt and is the second-largest copper resource country, any policy shift is a key variable in reshaping global supply chains. The previous market logic of a recovery in copper and cobalt mine supply has been disrupted, potentially leading to a price breakout in both metals under the new policy.
Gu Fengda believes the DRC's ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports marks a phase where resource-rich nations are actively driving pricing. The global commodity pricing system is accelerating its shift from a single-polar, efficiency-first model to a multi-polar, security-first equilibrium. In this process, heightened volatility in strategic resource prices is a risk to watch. A recent research report from Founder Securities also noted that the DRC's quota allocation is concentrated among a few top-tier companies, making it difficult to ease spot market tightness. According to the DRC government's quota allocation rules, three companies—CMOC Group Limited (03993), Glencore, and Eurasian Resources Group—receive nearly 70% of the quotas. As top players typically have high long-term contract ratios, their quotas will mainly be used to secure supply for major downstream clients, leaving the potential increase in spot market supply uncertain.
Based on the DRC's strict control over cobalt resource exports, analysts suggest focusing on the potential for cobalt price gains in the third quarter. Key stocks to watch include China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (01258), which announced the successful completion of repair work on the main and auxiliary shafts of its Chambishi Southeast Orebody in December 2025. The repair results met expectations, and the mine resumed full production on January 1, 2026. The company expects 2026 total copper production of approximately 484,000 tonnes, including about 134,000 tonnes of copper cathode and 350,000 tonnes of blister/anode copper. Output of blister/anode copper will decline due to planned maintenance shutdowns at the Chambishi and Luanshya copper smelters. For the full year, the company expects to produce about 155,000 tonnes of copper from its own mines, approximately 900,000 tonnes of sulphuric acid, about 100,000 tonnes of liquid sulphur dioxide, and roughly 600 tonnes of cobalt-in-hydroxide.
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358), a leading domestic copper smelter, has an annual copper cathode capacity of 2.1 million tonnes, with copper business revenue accounting for over 70% of its total. CMOC Group Limited (03993) is a global top-tier "mining + trading" company with leading output in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum. It is also a significant copper and phosphate fertilizer producer, ranking among the top three globally in base metals trading. The company's 80%-owned TFM mine is one of the world's largest and highest-grade in-production copper-cobalt mines, while its 71.25%-owned KFM mine is a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt project.
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