HAIDILAO (06862) shares fell nearly 3% in late trading, dropping 2.34% to HKD 11.27, with turnover reaching HKD 122 million.
According to a research report from CICC, the firm expects the brand's table turnover rate for the first half of 2026 to see a low single-digit year-on-year increase. Performance was relatively stronger in January-April, but weakened in May-June due to a challenging consumption environment and extreme weather in some regions, leading to a year-on-year decline in turnover. The report also predicts the average spending per customer for the first half of 2026 to be flat to slightly down compared to the same period last year, largely driven by more rational consumer behavior, such as ordering less food or opting for cheaper menu items.
HAIDILAO remains cautious with its expansion strategy. CICC forecasts the company will open over 20 new directly-operated stores, close more than 30, and convert about 6 to franchise models in the first half of 2026. Additionally, more than 10 new franchise stores are expected to open.
CICC further noted that the profit margin of the HAIDILAO brand in the first half is likely to remain stable year-on-year. On one hand, rising raw material costs, such as beef, may increase input costs, and the company has increased its brand marketing investment. On the other hand, the firm anticipates continued optimization of depreciation and amortization, and a potential year-on-year improvement in employee costs, which had a high base last year. However, considering the rising share of lower-margin businesses like delivery, raw material sales to franchisees, and new brands, along with reduced revenue from converting directly-operated stores to franchise models and foreign exchange gains, CICC expects the company's overall profit margin for the first half of 2026 to decline compared to the previous year.
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