China Merchants Securities issued a research report noting that white liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays faced temporary pressure, though resilient top brands held up well while the industry's overall health continues to improve. This year's Mid-Autumn Festival saw year-on-year sales decline of around 10%, but the drop narrowed compared to the 2025 period when sales fell 20%. Given that this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are separated by time, some stocking and demand may shift later, meaning current performance does not fully represent the entire holiday season. Rigid demand from premium gifting, banquets, and self-consumption is still expected to show resilience as the industry enters a supply contraction phase with gradual price recovery, yet the recovery cycle may extend due to weak demand and uneven adjustment paces among companies. Near-term focus should be on National Day demand release and post-holiday inventory changes, while mid-term attention turns to next year's Spring Festival as a validation point for demand recovery and industry clearing effects.
China Merchants Securities' key views are as follows:
One: Holiday feedback shows slightly lower sales, stable prices, and continued matthew effect
Holiday sales came in weaker than expected, prices performed better than demand, and the matthew effect persists. Summarizing channel feedback for the 2026 Mid-Autumn and National Day period, overall sales declined around 10% year-on-year; with the two holidays separated, some demand may be deferred. By price band and consumption scenario, premium liquor benefited from gifting demand and price support from Moutai and Wuliangye, with Feitiao performing strongly and Wuliangye's price band improving sequentially. The mass price band relied on self-drinking, family gatherings, and public banquets, with regional leaders like Yingjia performing well. Sub-premium products faced pressure from shrinking government and business demand and diversion by strong products like Moutai 1935, while Fenjiu showed resilience with continued share gains; other brands experienced notable declines. Meanwhile, online channels continued diverting offline demand, further weakening concentrated stocking during the traditional peak season.
Industry issues are being gradually resolved, with health improving but demand recovery still pending observation. On the demand side, weak macroeconomic conditions and policy factors have weakened government-business demand and corporate group purchases. Supply continues to contract as liquor companies sequentially control shipments, support prices, combat channel diversion, and destock to repair value chains. Current channel inventory has visibly declined, especially terminal inventory dropping to historically low levels, with mainstream product prices stabilizing. However, adjustment paces vary among companies and distributor inventory still requires digestion. Mid-Autumn sales missed expectations; subsequent observation should focus on National Day demand release, post-holiday inventory, and the intensity of supply contraction. Next year's Spring Festival will be a more critical checkpoint for validating demand recovery and industry clearing effectiveness.
Price band and consumption scenario breakdown
Premium prices outperformed sales, with Moutai and Wuliangye supporting the industry pricing system. This Mid-Autumn season saw relatively positive premium price performance with improved overall sales; Feitiao and Moutai 1935 sold well. Moutai's multiple price adjustments and supply pacing this year kept Feitiao wholesale prices stable in the 1,750-1,800 yuan range, with order volumes growing. Wuliangye's shipment controls, price support, and channel diversion governance drove price recovery, with Puwu wholesale prices at 770-800 yuan and terminal transaction prices no lower than 800 yuan; real consumption improved after prices moved down. Guojiao wholesale prices remained firm, but sales declined significantly.
Sub-premium products faced severe pressure with continued divergence; Fenjiu gained share. Moutai 1935, leveraging post-price-cut value-for-money, tight quotas, and high opening rates, continued diverting share from Qinghualang, Zhenjiu, and other sauce-aroma and sub-premium products. Fenjiu Qing20 wholesale prices held at 355-365 yuan with double-digit sales decline; Jiannanchun wholesale prices at 380-385 yuan with flat-to-slightly-lower sales; Luzhou Laojiao 60th Edition, Shuijingfang, and Shede saw sales down over 20%, leaving a large demand gap in the 400-500 yuan business consumption range.
The mass price band showed more resilience, with family banquets better than business consumption, and Yingjia showing sales highlights. Family gatherings, gifting, and banquet scenarios saw some pre-holiday demand recovery. Anhui banquet orders increasingly concentrated in hotel catering, with Yingjia performing prominently in mass consumption venues like local eateries; Dong6 and Dong9 performed relatively well. Bofen saw fast turnover while Honghualang achieved counter-trend growth. Meanwhile, online purchasing and price comparison further diverted offline demand, with terminals generally maintaining low inventory and replenishing as sold.
Two: Regional sales performance
Henan: Distributors expect holiday sales to decline slightly by 0%-5% year-on-year (consumption scenarios all recovered modestly pre-holiday, with family banquets more pronounced and business demand flat). Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu all saw double-digit sales growth versus 2025, while Laojiao remained sluggish. Consumption scenarios showed modest pre-holiday recovery across business, family, and banquet segments, with family banquets relatively stronger and business demand unchanged; holiday sales are expected to decline 0%-5%.
Anhui: Distributors expect holiday sales to decline 5%-10% year-on-year. Channels continued destocking with low inventory and terminals typically replenished as sold; payment collection and stocking pressure turned cautious, with sales declining 5%-10% year-on-year. Local Huzhou liquor barriers remain strong: Gujing's foundation stable, Yingjia Dong6 and Dong9 maintained growth with local eateries driving momentum upward, while Kouzijiao continued facing pressure from shrinking group and official consumption contraction. Banquet orders increasingly concentrated in hotel catering; online price comparison diverted offline demand and gained share. Anhui market holiday sales are expected to decline 5%-10% year-on-year, with terminals maintaining low inventory and low stocking. Gujing's foundation relatively stable, Yingjia Dong6 and Dong9 sustained growth, Moutai and Fenjiu performed steadily, while other brands faced overall pressure.
Jiangsu: Distributors expect holiday sales to decline over 10% year-on-year. Both banquet and business demand faced pressure; large purchases decreased while small individual and small enterprise purchases increased in share. Online sales grew but insufficiently compensated offline shortfalls, with the current holiday period showing declines exceeding 10%. Moutai and Fenjiu outperformed the industry, with Feitiao better than last year and 1935 selling briskly; Wuliangye sales declined 16%, Jinshiyuan declined 20%, Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao declined sharply, while Yingjia benefited from its base among Anhui migrant workers in southern Jiangsu and channel margin advantages, outperforming other regional liquors.
Sichuan: Distributors expect holiday sales to decline 5%-8% year-on-year, with notably delayed stocking pace in Sichuan. Premium liquor remained broadly stable; Moutai demand was strong, Wuliangye distributors grew 30 percentage points year-to-date, and Guojiao's shipments accelerated recently. Sub-premium demand was broadly weak; Honghualang grew counter-trend by about 10%. Under the high base of concentrated last-year holiday releases, this year is expected to decline 5%-8%.
Zhejiang: Distributors expect holiday sales to decline over 10% year-on-year. Moutai and Fenjiu performed relatively well; Wuliangye saw double-digit declines during the holidays and the entire September, high-degree Guojiao fell 50%, Shuijingfang/Jinshiyuan/Jiannanchun declined 10%-15%, and Gujing declined over 20%. Gifting and business demand fell; the increase in banquet events was offset by lower per-event liquor volume and opening rates, resulting in overall sales down over 10% year-on-year, with Moutai's decline within 10%.
Shandong: Distributors expect holiday sales to continue declining year-on-year; excluding Moutai and Wuliangye, other brands averaged declines of around 20% or more. Moutai and Wuliangye sales grew approximately 20% and 25% respectively; Fenjiu and Jiannanchun declined 8%-10% and 5%-10%, while Guojiao fell around 35%. Banquet and personal consumption grew modestly; business and mid-to-high-end demand remained weak, with the 500-800 yuan price band seeing the largest declines and overall sales down 20% year-on-year.
Core company tracking
Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH): Channel feedback indicates annual target completion of approximately 80%-85% (about 5 percentage points faster year-on-year). Feitiao inventory is generally under half a month, non-standard products around 1-2 weeks, all at low levels. After price increases, Feitiao remains in the 1,750-1,800 yuan range, leading the industry in pricing; Moutai 1935 wholesale price at 668 yuan benefits from high opening rates and tight supply, sustaining sales growth. Feitiao order volumes are steady, 1935 sells briskly, while non-standard products still see double-digit declines. Core product sales and prices remain relatively firm.
Wuliangye (000858.SZ): Channel feedback shows annual target completion of about 70%-85% (slight year-on-year growth, slightly below 2024 levels), with shipments only at 60%-70%. Since September, shipment controls, price support, and stronger channel diversion management drove price repair, with Puwu wholesale prices recovering to 770-780 yuan and terminal transaction prices above 800 yuan. After prices moved down, sales improved, including 20% growth in Henan on a low base but declines in Jiangsu. Distributor inventory stands at about 1-2 months, broadly manageable.
Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ): Channel feedback shows both payment collection and sales declined year-on-year; Henan task completion above 40%, Sichuan payment collection at 70%. High-degree Guojiao wholesale prices maintained at 820-850 yuan, firm but with sharply declining sales. Henan local demand is weak with some product flow to Hebei and Sichuan; after subsidy inventory and adjusted payment policies, Sichuan shipments accelerated. Henan inventory exceeds 4 months, while Sichuan's Luzhou Laojiao 60th Edition inventory stands at 2 months.
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH): Channel feedback shows full-year task completion at 75%-85% (flat year-on-year). Bofen's rapid turnover supports the foundation; Qing20 sales declined double-digit year-on-year with wholesale prices at 355-365 yuan; Qing30 faces greater pressure, and the Revival Edition shows obvious price inversion. Channel inventory generally exceeds 2 months, with Qing20 above 3 months.
Yanghe (002304.SZ): Channel feedback shows full-year target completion at 50% (significantly below last year), with holiday period expected at -30% year-on-year. Sales declined 30%-50%, with Haizhilan down 50% due to diversion from Danya; Tianzhilan, M3, and M6+ performed relatively better. Haizhilan wholesale price at 130 yuan with M6+ prices firm; channel inventory around 3.5-4 months, with near-term focus still on destocking and channel repair.
Jinshiyuan (603369.SH): Channel feedback shows full-year target completion below 70% (slowing about 15 percentage points year-on-year), with channel inventory at 4-6 months (up 1-2 months year-on-year). Overall sales declined 20%, with V9/V3/Sikai down 60%/40%/30%+, Dankai and Rouya declining less, K3 and K5 performing better, while Danya declined in most regions. Sikai wholesale price at 380-390 yuan, Danya at 105 yuan, broadly stable.
Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ): Channel feedback shows full-year target completion above 80%, slightly slower year-on-year. Distributor inventory remains above 4 months, slightly up year-on-year; terminal inventory has fallen to half or one-third of last year's levels, with ordinary stores under 1 month and large stores around 2-3 months. Hefei market remains broadly stable; Gu5 and Xianli declined, Gu8 and Gu16 performed relatively better, Gu20 flat. Gu16 and Gu20 wholesale prices trended down; task completion depends on inventory digestion going forward.
Yingjia Gongjiu (603198.SH): Channel and company feedback shows distributor full-year target completion at 60%-70%, better than last year; Hefei distributors held only 1-1.5 months of inventory before Mid-Autumn shipments, slightly down year-on-year. Dong6 and Dong9 sustained growth with wholesale prices at 425 yuan per case and 195-200 yuan per bottle respectively; Dong6's volume approaches Gu5's, and with equal channel margins, rising self-order rates are capturing share. Local eateries and other mass consumption scenarios performed prominently, making Yingjia one of the better-performing regional liquors.
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