华尔街知名策略师给美联储支招：制造崩盘、搞崩一切

金十数据2022-02-18

Zoltan Pozsar表示，市场需要“沃尔克式”的冲击来压低通胀。最受尊敬的华尔街策略师之一、瑞士信贷集团策略师、回购市场大师、前美联储官员Zoltan Pozsar表示，如果美联储想要在不导致经济衰退的情况下减缓通胀，就需要提供“沃尔克式”的冲击来压低资产价格。Pozsar在给客户的一份报告中写道，政策制定者应该制造波动，以触发包括股票、房屋和比特币在内的资产进行价格修正，同时阻止提前退休并...

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jootan
2022-03-09
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Youn7276
2022-02-19
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Sunc
2022-02-18
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2022-02-18
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Volcker）在1980年代通过大幅加息击败通胀的做法。Pozsar说，这一次的不同之处在于，政策制定者需要“带来更多的劳动力供应，而不是减少对劳动力的需求”，还要减缓主要由于高房价和工人短缺导致的服务业通胀。这位有影响力的分析师表示，扭转这些驱动因素的关键是通过增加支撑资产估值的长期借贷成本来收紧金融状况。Pozsar写道：“也许美联储应该在3月份加息50个基点，不再开新闻发布会，并在第二天出售500亿美元的10年期美债。”Pozsar的说法听起来有点吓人。金融博客零对冲称，在现在这样一个高度金融化的世界中，金融资产的价值是美国GDP的6倍以上，让市场崩溃，即使不会带来彻底的萧条，也会立即导致严重的衰退。但如果经济没有急剧放缓、金融状况急剧收紧和多次加息，那么压垮拜登支持率的失控通胀危机只会变得更糟，直到最终美联储失去对通胀预期的所有控制，引发恶性通胀、货币贬值和崩溃。零对冲写道，美联储目前发现自己处于双输局面，两种选择都同样具有毁灭性——引发经济衰退或市场崩盘，或很可能两者兼而有之。零对冲甚至建议将油价推至200美元/桶。原因正如摩根大通最近解释的那样，将油价推高至150美元，就会引发全球通胀海啸并摧毁全球经济，最终实现消除通胀并引发急需的经济重置的目标。顺便说一句，这可以解释为什么拜登政府如此努力地在乌克兰煽风点火。零对冲称，当前形势与2008年日益相似——当时油价飙升至150美元，据许多人说，那就是引发全球金融危机的近端因素。无独有偶，花旗集团的金融大师马特·金（Matt King）也曾表示，美联储只能通过抑制需求来降低通胀，在这种情况下，它需要放缓经济增长才能缓解通胀压力。也正如荷兰合作银行的Michael 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