Conflict, climate, storage, water scarcity, and waste are simultaneously tightening the world's food supply.
On August 15, a new report from JPMorgan Chase revealed that the contours of the next global food crisis are already taking shape, with food inflation pressures expected to persist through the first half of 2027.
The report, titled "Food Security as National Security: A Compound Storm," was authored by Nora Szentivanyi, a senior global economist at JPMorgan Chase in London. It warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a potentially record-breaking super El Niño are building in tandem, threatening to reduce crop yields, compress agricultural production capacity, and keep food inflation elevated into early 2027.
Szentivanyi stated directly in the report: "Since the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of consecutive shocks have created a cumulative effect, eroding food production capacity and extending food price pressures into 2027. This is not a short-term shock; it reduces the likelihood of a near-term decline in inflation, and the food inflation cycle is likely to maintain pressure through the first half of 2027."
She forecasts that the global food inflation rate will accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027.
The Five Roots of the Crisis: The 'Five Ws'
JPMorgan Chase attributes this risk to the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
These five factors are not isolated but are compounding and reinforcing each other. Conflict disrupts key shipping routes, abnormal weather harms agricultural output, insufficient storage capacity weakens the buffer against shortages, water scarcity limits irrigation, and food waste further reduces effective supply.
Szentivanyi specifically highlighted the most immediate vulnerability: fertilizers. She stated: "Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the impending super El Niño are intensifying pressures on fertilizer and food prices."
Fertilizers are a core input for food production, and price increases directly translate into higher crop costs, subsequently pushing up retail food prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global transport route for energy and fertilizer raw materials, and any disruption there magnifies impacts along the entire supply chain.
The Super El Niño: A 'Time Bomb' with a 6 to 12 Month Delay
A key characteristic of El Niño's destructive power is its lag effect. Szentivanyi noted: "The impact on crops and prices is still accumulating. Agricultural shocks typically lag behind the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months."
This means that even if the climatic peak of El Niño has passed, the substantial impact on food production is only just beginning to emerge.
More concerning, this year's energy shock is amplifying the inflationary effect of El Niño. Szentivanyi estimates that the combination of the two will raise global food CPI by approximately 1.5 percentage points, compared to the historical average impact of 0.7 percentage points from El Niño events alone—effectively doubling the impact.
Specifically, food inflation is expected to reach an annualized rate of 5% in the first half of 2027, contributing an additional 0.6 percentage points to overall inflation and slowing the overall inflation decline by 0.3 percentage points for the year.
Emerging Markets Bear the Brunt
The geographic impact of this shock is uneven, with emerging markets facing the most significant pressure.
Szentivanyi pointed out: "Risks are concentrated in South and Southeast Asia (involving rice, sugar, and coffee), West Africa (cocoa), and parts of East and South Africa. Emerging markets bear the primary impact of El Niño. The economies with the strongest food inflation reactions are concentrated in emerging market Asia and Latin America—regions where agriculture is more sensitive to weather and food has a higher weight in consumption baskets. India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Korea are among the most vulnerable economies."
In contrast, while Western countries have strategic petroleum reserves, they have almost no buffer when it comes to fertilizer reserves. The report also noted that major Asian countries have been stockpiling grain, fertilizers, energy, and industrial metals on a large scale, while the West is clearly at a disadvantage in this dimension.
Szentivanyi's assessment is that the epicenter of the next inflation shock may no longer be the gas station, but the supermarket shelf.
Multiple Institutions Issue Concurrent Warnings
JPMorgan Chase is not alone. Research departments at Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and other institutions have previously issued warnings about food inflation risks.
The FAO Global Food Price Index rose to a three-year high in July this year, providing data supporting these judgments.
Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes recently issued a similar warning. He stated that grocery store inflation "may be on the way," citing a composite index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs as a basis, and predicting that a new wave of food price spikes could appear on supermarket shelves by this autumn.
Despite this, global hunger statistics have shown some improvement—approximately 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, a decrease of about 43 million from 2022. However, 2.1 billion people (25.8% of the global population) remain in a state of moderate or severe food insecurity. This vast base means that any price shock will quickly translate into humanitarian pressure.
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