The 2026 Spring Festival holiday has been extended again, which is expected to sustain strong demand for family visits and tourism. According to a recent national video conference on Spring Festival travel arrangements, cross-regional passenger movement during the 2026 travel period is projected to reach 9.5 billion person-trips, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3%, setting a new historical record. Both railway and civil aviation passenger volumes, in terms of overall scale and single-day peaks, are anticipated to surpass previous peak levels. On January 29, Xu Qing, Director of the Transport Department of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that besides the traditional return home for the New Year, outbound and inbound tourism, as well as ice-snow tourism in the north and warm-weather escapes in the south, will become popular trends during this year's Spring Festival travel season. Tourist routes are expected to experience new travel peaks. It is forecasted that national civil aviation passenger traffic during this year's Spring Festival period will reach 95 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of about 5.3%.
According to a report from Airbus' latest Asia-Pacific "Global Services Market Forecast" released on February 5, total service demand in the region is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% through 2044, with the market value expected to reach $138.7 billion. This sustained growth will be driven by the expansion of air passenger traffic and fleet size. Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific region will require 19,560 new passenger aircraft, accounting for 46% of global total demand during the forecast period. The region is expected to remain the world's fastest-growing air travel market, with annual passenger traffic growth of 4.4%, higher than the global average of 3.6%.
Data from TravelSky's big data platform shows that as of January 29, domestic flight bookings have exceeded 7.16 million, with average daily ticket bookings up 16% year-on-year. Galaxy Securities noted that the high-frequency booking data and official traffic forecasts mutually reinforce each other, reflecting robust demand for civil aviation travel. Combined with a steady increase in flight supply, this is expected to support simultaneous improvements in both passenger numbers and revenue levels during the Spring Festival travel period.
Morgan Stanley announced an upgrade of its ratings for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines' A-shares to Overweight. Driven by favorable demand trends, the recovery that began in the fourth quarter of last year is likely to gain further momentum in 2026-2027. Although investor positioning and confidence remain relatively low, potential fare increases are expected to help boost market sentiment. J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight ratings on the H-shares of the three major airlines, as well as on Spring Airlines.
Related Hong Kong-listed airline industry stocks: - Air China (00753) - China Eastern Airlines (00670) - China Southern Airlines (01055) - Cathay Pacific Airways (00293)
BOC Aviation (02588): UBS released a research report stating that BOC Aviation (02588) is benefiting from a reacceleration of asset growth and is entering a new upward cycle in return on equity (ROE). ROE is projected to reach 11.7% in 2026 and 12.7% in 2027, up from 10.9% in 2025. The bank believes that as ROE improves, there is room for a valuation rerating of the company.
TravelSky Technology (00696): Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on TravelSky Technology (00696), based on the recovery of the civil aviation industry's prosperity, the company's increased marketing investment, and enhanced operational efficiency through effective management. Leveraging its affiliation with TravelSky, accumulated customer base, and synergies with shareholder Meituan, the company is developing into a leading online travel agency (OTA) platform. In the short term, following the operational strategy of Flight Manager, it is starting its OTA business with air tickets, and is expected to reach a breakeven point soon. In the long term, it complements the Meituan ecosystem and aims to become a pillar OTA within the Meituan group, competing with leading OTA platforms such as Ctrip and Tongcheng.
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