Gold Market Review and Key Views: Last week, London spot gold closed at $3,995 per ounce (down 4.1% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 864 yuan per gram (down 3.8% week-on-week).
Last week, oil prices continued to surge, constituting a significant macroeconomic headwind for gold prices. Brent crude oil broke through $110 per barrel last Friday, with a weekly gain of over 6%, mainly due to the sharp escalation of the Middle East situation last week. Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oil field was attacked by drones, and the Houthi armed forces claimed to have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu and Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the push to overthrow the Iranian regime, and the US and Israel were reported to have formulated plans to strike Iran again after the November midterm elections. On the capital flow side, the liquidity crunch caused by the sharp decline in the AI sector intensified selling pressure on precious metals and other assets. Gold once again became a liquidity "ATM," while risk-aversion sentiment drove funds toward US Treasuries, leading to a significant drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield. In addition, COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions retreated, and overseas SPDR Gold ETF funds also saw significant net outflows last week, bringing some pressure on the capital side. A news report about artificial synthesis of gold in a laboratory also caused panic in the gold market. On October 22, US nuclear fusion startup Marathon Fusion claimed to have achieved "turning mercury into stable gold" by bombarding mercury with neutrons, but this method of artificially synthesizing gold is still far from true large-scale implementation. On one hand, current laboratory output is only about a few hundred picograms of gold (one picogram is one trillionth of a gram), and the required commercial fusion power plants have not yet been deployed at scale, so the new supply from artificial gold synthesis is still very small; on the other hand, artificially synthesized gold needs to be stored for up to 18 years until radioactivity decays to a safe level before it can enter circulation. Therefore, the scarcity of gold has not been shaken, and the news triggered more emotional panic rather than a real supply shock. Looking ahead, this week will usher in a super week for overseas central banks, with key central banks in the US, Japan, and Europe successively announcing interest rate decisions. The market expects all three major central banks to pause rate hikes, with focus on the Fed's statement wording and Warsh's press conference remarks. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index continued to fall rapidly, easing the macroeconomic pressure on gold, and attention will be on whether international gold prices can once again stand above the $4,000 mark. In the medium to long term, the structural logic supporting gold has not been shaken by recent fluctuations. US fiscal sustainability issues, the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases, and the fragmentation of the geopolitical landscape together constitute a solid foundation for gold's medium- to long-term allocation value. Key signals for gold investment in the coming week: 1) The October Fed interest rate decision; 2) ECB and BOJ interest rate decisions; 3) Progress in the US-Iran situation. Related products: Gold ETF Huaan (518880) / Feeder A (000216) / Feeder C (000217), Gold Stock ETF Huaan (159321). Fund fee explanation: Regarding ETF product subscription/redemption fees, when investors handle cash subscription or redemption, the sales institution may charge a certain fee/commission at a standard not exceeding 0.5%, which includes related fees charged by exchanges, registration and settlement institutions, etc. Gold ETF Feeder A (000216): For a single subscription amount M < 1 million, subscription fee rate 0.60%; for a single subscription amount 1 million ≤ M < 3 million, subscription fee rate 0.40%; for a single subscription amount 3 million ≤ M < 5 million, subscription fee rate 0.15%; for a single subscription amount M ≥ 5 million, subscription fee 1,000 yuan per transaction. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%. Gold ETF Feeder C (000217): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.35%. Gold ETF Feeder I (022653): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period Y ≥ 7 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.10%. Risk warning: Investors are advised to pay attention to the specific risks of investing in gold-themed funds, such as the risk of gold market fluctuations, the risk that fund portfolio returns deviate from domestic gold spot price returns, and the investment risks of the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot market. Gold stock ETFs are equity funds that mainly invest in constituent stocks and alternative constituent stocks of the underlying index, and have risk-return characteristics similar to the underlying index. Gold stock ETFs can invest in stocks under the Stock Connect, and will face exchange rate risks and specific risks arising from differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Stock Connect mechanism. The fund management company does not guarantee that the above funds will certainly profit, nor does it guarantee minimum returns. Past performance of funds cannot predict future returns. The operation time of China's funds is relatively short and cannot reflect all stages of stock market development. Markets carry risks, investment requires caution, and risks are borne by the investor. Before investing in funds, investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract and Prospectus, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of fund products, and based on understanding the product situation and listening to the suitability opinions of sales institutions, make independent decisions on fund investment according to their own risk tolerance, investment period, and investment goals, and choose suitable fund products. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!
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