Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels due to the imposition of a "dual blockade." Vessel tracking data indicates that only 11 commercial ships transited the strait on Tuesday, a decrease from the average of 16 vessels per day over the weekend. However, as ships may disable their digital transponders in high-risk areas to conceal their movements, reports citing two U.S. officials suggest the actual number of vessels passing through on Tuesday may have exceeded 20.
A swift return to normal shipping operations is critical for the global economy. The near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already created a shortfall in the transport of over 400 million barrels of oil. Since the outbreak of the conflict, oil prices have surged by a cumulative 31%, with European natural gas prices experiencing similar increases.
Despite a substantial overall decline in shipping volume since the war began, Iran has continued to export oil at levels close to those seen before the conflict. This has helped maintain global supplies while providing Tehran with a crucial source of revenue. The United States aims to exert sufficient economic pressure on Iran through the blockade to compel it to accept U.S. demands, while simultaneously seeking to avoid a scenario where Iran's own effective blockade of the strait further destabilizes the global economy.
The U.S. Central Command stated on Wednesday via social media platform X that no vessels had successfully breached its blockade. It reported that nine ships had complied with U.S. military instructions, diverting their course towards Iranian ports or areas near the Iranian coastline.
Some vessels may only reactivate their transponders after moving away from the strait, meaning some transit activity will be reported with a delay. Even accounting for this, the volume of traffic through the strait is expected to remain far below the pre-conflict daily average of 135 vessels.
Following an attack by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, Iran almost completely halted the passage of vessels from other nations within a single day. Initially, to prevent a sharp spike in oil prices, the U.S. did not impede Iran's exports and even temporarily relaxed some sanctions.
However, after ceasefire talks collapsed on Sunday, the U.S. altered its strategy, imposing a blockade on almost all Iranian maritime activity. This measure took effect on Monday evening, Persian Gulf time.
Both sides have claimed the capability to break through the other's blockade. Tehran has asserted that one of its very large crude carriers (VLCCs) successfully breached the U.S. blockade. While not naming the specific vessel, this likely refers to the Alicia, a sanctioned, unladen tanker that entered the strait near Iran's Larak Island around 4:10 AM local time.
Two hours after the Alicia's entry, another VLCC, the Agios Fanourios I, owned by a Greek entity, passed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf on its second attempt. Signal data indicated the vessel was heading towards the Iraqi port of Basra.
For oil markets, a more significant concern is that there are currently no confirmed signs of laden Iranian oil tankers successfully breaking the U.S. blockade, with several having reportedly turned back.
Iran appears to have loaded another tanker at its Jask export terminal, located east of the Strait of Hormuz outside the Persian Gulf. Satellite imagery showed a VLCC docked at the terminal on Friday and Sunday, while images from Tuesday revealed the berth was empty. The vessel had its transponder switched off during its stay and has not reactivated it, leaving its current whereabouts unknown.
Beyond tankers, at least two Iran-linked container ships, the Golbon and the Kashan, appear to have successfully departed the Persian Gulf. They were tracked sailing along the Iranian coast towards waters bordering Pakistan. Data shows both vessels passed the top of the strait on Tuesday, having previously been anchored outside the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.
Over the past 24 hours, all vessel traffic entering or exiting the Persian Gulf has been confined to a narrow northern corridor close to Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands.
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