Satellite launches and the explosion of space-based computing are poised to propel the space-based photovoltaic market toward a scale of hundreds of gigawatts. Driven by cost-reduction demands and resource constraints, silicon-perovskite tandem technology is expected to accelerate, replacing traditional gallium arsenide. Additionally, demand for high-value encapsulation materials, such as ultra-thin glass and specialized films, along with flexible solar arrays, is set to surge. This trend presents a historic cross-sector opportunity for China's photovoltaic industry chain.
**Core View** Recently, China submitted a deployment plan for over 200,000 satellites to the International Telecommunication Union in a single filing, while SpaceX applied to the Federal Communications Commission to launch one million satellites. As the primary power source for satellites, this report focuses on space-based photovoltaics from three perspectives: 1) The industrial trend of space-based computing; 2) The market prospects for space-based photovoltaics; 3) Development opportunities for Chinese companies related to space-based photovoltaics.
**From Low-Earth Orbit Communication to Space-Based Computing: Far-Fetched or Achievable?** In the short term, the "exclusivity of frequency and orbital resources" and the "international monopolistic nature" of space satellite infrastructure dictate a "first-come, first-served" and "winner-takes-all" characteristic in the technological competition among major powers. This is expected to push the satellite market scale from tens of megawatts toward hundreds of megawatts and gigawatts. Long-term, with the exponential growth of AI applications, an era requiring 100 GW of computing power annually may not be distant. Achieving this on Earth would necessitate building the equivalent of another US power grid within a few years, whereas constructing new US transmission lines or gas plants typically takes over five years. Realizing this scale of computing infrastructure in space would require Starship to launch hourly, which currently seems ambitious. However, with advancements in private sector technology, it may become achievable. Space-based computing is fundamentally a "resource competition." Terrestrial computing centers face "diseconomies of scale" due to land occupation, energy consumption, and rising hidden costs. In contrast, space-based computing centers, benefiting from unlimited solar resources, sufficient satellite spacing, and advancing launch technologies, could achieve "economies of scale," potentially evolving into a hundred-gigawatt market.
**Space-Based Photovoltaics: From Niche Market to Vast Frontier - Implications for the Industry** Solar energy is an inexhaustible resource in space, where photovoltaics can maximize their value due to higher irradiation intensity and longer sunlight hours. The current space-based photovoltaic market is only 30 MW, with an output value equivalent to 2% of the terrestrial photovoltaic market. Market space projections are based on three scenarios: 1) Intensive communication satellite launches, where a GW-level space photovoltaic market corresponds to an output value reaching 40% of terrestrial photovoltaics; 2) Initial deployment of computing constellations could bring 10 GW-level space photovoltaic demand, potentially surpassing terrestrial photovoltaic output value; 3) Dominance by computing satellites could lead to 100 GW-level space photovoltaic demand, driving output value to nearly nine times that of terrestrial photovoltaics.
**Implications for China's PV Industry Chain from Earth Leadership to Space Leadership** The era of large-scale satellite launches may be arriving, increasing pressure for satellite cost reduction. Consequently, iterations in photovoltaic technology and solar array structure will likely focus on cost reduction, presenting development and investment opportunities for the industry chain: 1) From a technology roadmap perspective, the space environment causes current dominant terrestrial technologies like N-type and cadmium telluride to face rapid degradation issues. Thus, space photovoltaics currently favor Group III-V gallium arsenide and P-PERC as mainstream. Global annual germanium production only supports 300-500 MW/year of space gallium arsenide photovoltaic supply, suggesting that as the market scales, alternative technologies like P-type crystalline silicon and perovskite tandems could achieve greater penetration elasticity. The shorter lifespan expectations of low-Earth orbit satellites also provide development opportunities for crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies. 2) From a supply chain perspective, the value of encapsulation materials for space photovoltaics is hundreds to thousands of times that of terrestrial counterparts, and consumption of auxiliary materials like silver paste is several times higher, benefiting from value inflation. Regarding solar array form, weight reduction goals may lead flexible solar arrays to gradually replace rigid ones, driving demand for UTG glass and CPI film.
**Key Differences from Market Views** Much existing research on space-based photovoltaics is introductory, lacking systematic industrial logic and market size calculations. This report details the feasibility and necessity of space-based computing, provides specific scenario-based forecasts for the space photovoltaic market size, and identifies investment opportunities under the two main themes of industry chain technology iteration and value inflation.
**Investment Summary** Satellite launches are on the verge of acceleration. Recently, China submitted a plan for over 200,000 satellites, nearly doubling its previous filings and about 15-20 times its current in-orbit volume. SpaceX also applied to launch one million satellites, indicating accelerated global satellite launch plans. Global new in-orbit satellites increased 72.5% year-over-year in 2025, with the total in-orbit count up 44.4%. Based on national filings with the ITU, if realized as planned, annual global satellite launches could exceed 10,000 by 2030, potentially even earlier considering computing satellite deployments. Reviewing SpaceX's commercialization experience, breakthroughs in domestic reusable rocket technology could reduce launch costs via rocket reuse, bringing an inflection point for accelerated domestic launch cadence closer.
**Why is Space a Focal Point of Intense Competition?** The exclusivity of frequency/orbital resources and international monopolistic nature of space infrastructure create a first-come, first-served, winner-takes-all dynamic in major power tech competition. The theoretical capacity of optimal low-Earth orbits is finite. With over 14,000 satellites currently operational, orbital resource competition is intensifying, especially in low-Earth orbit communication satellites offering lower latency and broader applications compared to navigation/weather/remote sensing satellites in medium/high orbits. Communication satellites, requiring larger numbers and facing less saturated supply, are likely the main focus of orbital resource contention in the near term, pushing the market from tens of MW to hundreds of MW and GW levels. Long-term, space-based computing is a resource competition. As terrestrial AI data center construction saturates and hidden costs rise, space could absorb溢出 computing demand for non-linear growth, benefiting from unlimited solar resources, absence of permitting fees, and economies of scale post-launch technology advancement. The successful November 2025 test of the world's first AI computing satellite heralds accelerated AI computing satellite trials and space data center networking over the next 5-10 years. Driven by increasing satellite numbers and individual satellite power consumption, AI computing satellites could push the market from GW to hundreds of GW levels medium-to-long term, evolving satellites' role from "space sensing, ground computing" to "space-based primary computing," potentially replacing humans as the "most powerful brain" of the space economy.
**Can China's PV Industry Replicate its Terrestrial Influence in Space?** Solar energy is inexhaustible in space, and photovoltaics can achieve maximum value under stronger irradiation and longer hours, becoming the dominant energy form. However, space conditions like strong radiation, large temperature differentials, and atomic oxygen impose new constraints on technology selection. Dominant terrestrial N-type and cadmium telluride technologies face rapid degradation in space, making Group III-V gallium arsenide and P-PERC the current mainstream. In the era of scaled satellite launches, cost reduction pressures will intensify. Mainstream gallium arsenide may face "diseconomies of scale" due to resource constraints, potentially driving development of upgraded solutions like multi-junction and concentrated gallium arsenide, while lower-cost, higher specific power options like P-HJT and crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cells, compatible with flexible production, may gradually penetrate. Thorough in-orbit validation is prerequisite for technology iteration. The relatively shorter operational lifespans of LEO satellites mitigate disadvantages hindering perovskite adoption terrestrially and accelerate new technology validation cycles. China holds absolute industry chain influence in terrestrial applications of various crystalline silicon and perovskite PV technologies. If it maintains this dominance in the space era, China's PV industry could become a growth sector most able to fully benefit from the accelerated growth of the global satellite industry.
**What Does the Transition from Niche Market to Vast Frontier Mean for the Space PV Industry?** The current space PV market is only 30 MW, with output value at 2% of the terrestrial market. Future market growth could follow three scenarios: 1) Intensive communication satellite launches, leading to a GW-level market with output value reaching 40% of terrestrial PV; 2) Initial computing constellation deployment, creating a 10 GW-level market potentially surpassing terrestrial PV output value; 3) Computing satellite dominance, driving a 100 GW-level market with output value nearly 9 times terrestrial PV. Under these expectations, several supply chain segments show greater demand elasticity: 1. From a technology perspective, China's annual germanium output only supports about 300-500 MW/year of space gallium arsenide market, implying routes like crystalline silicon and perovskite tandems could achieve greater penetration growth elasticity as the market scales, helping related PV equipment companies lead industry cycles. 2. From a supply chain perspective, encapsulation materials are core to resisting UV/radiation, thermal cycling, and atomic oxygen in space. The value of front glass and films/silicone for space PV is hundreds to thousands of times terrestrial levels. Silver paste consumption and welding techniques also differ significantly. 3. From a solar array form perspective, weight reduction goals may see flexible arrays gradually replace rigid ones, primarily a difference in encapsulation materials, creating demand from scratch for UTG glass and CPI film, driving demand increments several times their traditional applications.
The space industry chain has high entry barriers and long lead times. For traditional PV and material companies crossing into the space market, smooth cooperation channels, sufficient ground validation, and stable supply capability are essential. The impending rapid changes in cell and solar array technology routes before industrial scaling present historic opportunities for new entrants. Subsequent focus should be on corporate industry chain equity cooperation dynamics, space product R&D pace, ground validation progress, and on-orbit validation advancements.
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