Abstract
Cboe Global Markets, Inc will report fourth-quarter and full-year results on February 06, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, the company’s current-quarter projections, and recent institutional commentary pointing to resilient volumes and product-mix tailwinds.Market Forecast
The market projects Cboe Global Markets, Inc’s current quarter revenue at $654.50 million (+24.46% YoY), with forecast EBIT of $432.53 million (+37.12% YoY) and EPS of $2.91 (+37.94% YoY). Margin commentary implies continued leverage: prior-quarter gross profit margin stood at 53.03% and net profit margin at 26.35%; investors expect stable-to-better conversion alongside mix-driven operating efficiency. Options, North American Equities, and derivatives-linked volumes remain the key revenue drivers, with sustained client demand for volatility and index products supporting outlook. Options remains the most promising segment, with last quarter revenue of $616.00 million; the unit is positioned for double-digit growth on index options depth and sustained retail/institutional activity.Last Quarter Review
Cboe Global Markets, Inc’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $605.50 million (+13.82% YoY), gross profit margin of 53.03%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $301.00 million, net profit margin of 26.35%, and adjusted EPS of $2.67 (+20.27% YoY). Net profit expanded quarter-on-quarter by 27.95%, reflecting robust operating leverage and favorable mix in higher-margin options and index products. By segment, Options generated $616.00 million, North American Equities $377.80 million, Europe and Asia Pacific $92.80 million, Futures $32.00 million, and Global FX $23.10 million; Options growth outpaced other businesses and remains the primary engine.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Options and North American cash equities as volume engines
The company’s main transactional businesses—Options and North American Equities—anchor this quarter’s setup. Forecast revenue at $654.50 million implies a pronounced step-up from the prior quarter, supported by broad-based trading activity and a favorable product mix skewed toward index and multi-list options. Elevated client engagement across institutional hedging and retail trading, alongside continued market structure enhancements, should support sustained capture of fee economics while maintaining discipline on incentive spend. The prior-quarter net profit margin of 26.35% and gross profit margin of 53.03% establish a healthy baseline; with forecast EPS at $2.91, incremental margin capture looks plausible as fixed-cost absorption improves and technology investments scale.Underpinning volumes, proprietary index options and flagship volatility-linked products typically command attractive pricing and clearing economics. Even with periodic shifts in realized volatility, depth in liquidity provision and strong market-maker participation tend to stabilize spreads and throughput. On the equities side, North American Equities remains a key complementary business that reinforces network effects across routing, data, and market access. Together, these units should sustain a balanced revenue stream, with incremental upside if volatility regimes remain supportive during the quarter.
Most promising business: Options leadership and index product depth
Options revenue of $616.00 million last quarter underscores the franchise’s breadth, with growth in index options and differentiated liquidity pools enhancing both mix and margins. This quarter’s forecast anticipates continued momentum as investors actively manage macro uncertainty, rates paths, and earnings-season dispersion. The breadth of client participation—ranging from systematic strategies to retail—supports consistent order flow, while enhanced risk controls and product innovation maintain franchise stickiness.The strategic emphasis on index options and volatility products promotes recurring engagement and premium pricing, reinforcing EBIT leverage. With forecast EBIT at $432.53 million and EPS at $2.91, incremental gains in high-value options volumes can yield disproportionate profitability given operating scale. Ancillary revenues from market data and connectivity tied to options activity add a secondary tailwind. If realized volatility remains near or above mid-range, the segment’s revenue growth could exceed the consolidated projection, with incremental benefits to margin structure.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter: Volatility regime, product mix, and cost discipline
Equity and cross-asset volatility remains the principal catalyst for transactional revenue. A sustained moderate-to-elevated volatility regime typically supports higher contract volumes and favorable mix in index products; conversely, suppressed volatility may temper throughput, though client hedging needs and index depth can soften cyclicality. Product mix within options—particularly the share of index and proprietary contracts—has outsized effects on revenue yield and margin progression; any shift toward lower-yield multi-list flow could compress near-term operating leverage.Cost discipline and technology ROI will be closely watched. The prior quarter’s strong margin profile sets expectations for further efficiency gains as platform investments scale, but incremental hiring, incentive costs, and integration expenses can modestly offset operating leverage. Investors will parse commentary on incentive frameworks, capacity enhancements, and capital returns to gauge sustainability of EPS growth. Management transitions in operations and equities leadership announced recently introduce attention to execution cadence; clear continuity in strategic priorities and market structure initiatives should reassure on delivery against the guidance path.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentary, the majority stance leans positive. One recent note maintained a Buy rating with a target of $295.00, citing durable volume trends and index options leadership, while neutral stances from other brokers emphasized valuation discipline and execution consistency. The preponderance of ratings skews to favorable or neutral-favorable, implying a bullish-to-constructive majority view this quarter.Supportive opinions point to resilient demand for listed derivatives, especially index options where fee economics and competitive moat are most visible. Analysts see the forecast revenue of $654.50 million (+24.46% YoY), EPS of $2.91 (+37.94% YoY), and EBIT of $432.53 million (+37.12% YoY) as achievable given recent momentum and ongoing product mix benefits. Commentary also notes the company’s consistent outperformance versus prior-quarter sell-side estimates—last quarter revenue of $605.50 million and adjusted EPS of $2.67 both topped expectations—suggesting execution strength heading into the print. While some Hold ratings highlight sensitivity to volatility normalization and cost trajectories, the dominant view expects sustained top-line and EPS expansion supported by options depth and market data adjacencies.
Overall, the majority of analysts display a bullish tilt, anticipating that higher-value options flow, steady equities participation, and operating leverage will produce another quarter of solid revenue and profit growth. The focus will be on confirmation of volume sustainability, commentary on incentive and pricing strategy in options, and signals around capital allocation and expense envelopes for the new fiscal year.
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