On April 27, the international gold market displayed volatile trading characterized by an initial decline followed by a recovery. During the early session, spot gold opened lower, dropping nearly $30 due to stalled US-Iran peace talks and a strengthening US Dollar Index, breaching the $4,690 per ounce level and hitting a low of $4,672.20. However, as market sentiment gradually stabilized, gold prices began a rebound in the afternoon. By the close, spot gold was quoted at $4,696.89 per ounce, showing a slight recovery from the opening price but still down $11.90, or 0.25%, from the previous trading session.
On a monthly chart perspective, although the long-term bull trend for international gold remains intact, the short-term overbought correction continues. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in historically high territory, indicating that the previous rally was overextended and suggesting a need for further price adjustment. While the 5-month, 10-month, and 20-month moving averages still maintain a bullish alignment, the divergence between them has narrowed, indicating weakened short-term support. Short-term investors should be cautious of the risk of a deep correction within the bull market and avoid bottom-fishing recklessly.
On the weekly chart, the upward trend in gold prices has clearly encountered resistance. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines show signs of turning downward above the zero line, signaling a decay in bullish momentum. This week, gold prices retreated from their peak, accumulating a decline of 2.52%, and have fallen below short-term support on the weekly chart, indicating that bearish forces are beginning to dominate and the short-term trend has turned bearish.
On the daily chart, international gold has established a short-term bearish pattern. The 24-day and 38-day moving averages have formed a death cross, with the price falling below the moving average support system. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a death cross above the zero line, and the green momentum bars are expanding, providing clear bearish signals. The Bollinger Bands are continuing to contract, with the K-line oscillating narrowly around the middle band. The probability of a breakout leading to a one-directional move is increasing this week, suggesting further downside potential for gold. In the short term, gold prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias within the range of $4,650 to $4,870 per ounce. A break below the $4,650 support level would target a move down to $4,550.
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are trapped in a narrow range-bound oscillation, confined between $4,657 and $4,740. Technical indicators show the MACD forming a golden cross below the zero line, indicating a short-term rebound potential. On the hourly chart, following the morning decline, short-term indicators show oversold conditions, moving averages are flattening, and the price has reached the lower band, suggesting a potential rebound during the Asian session. However, due to significant resistance above, the extent of any rebound may be limited.
In summary, a short-term bearish pattern for international gold has been established. Factors such as geopolitical stalemate fueling inflation and rate hike expectations, the continuation of the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, and persistent capital outflows will collectively pressure gold prices. In the near term, gold is likely to continue its oscillating downward trend, with key support at $4,650. A break below this level could lead to a further decline towards $4,550. While the long-term bull market structure remains unchanged, the depth of the short-term correction may exceed market expectations. Investors should consider establishing long positions only after bearish forces have been fully exhausted.
Short-term gold trading strategy: Consider going long near $4,698 with a stop loss at $4,685, targeting $4,720-$4,730. For short positions, consider selling near $4,725-$4,730, with a manual stop loss above $4,740, targeting a pullback to $4,700-$4,690-$4,670.
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