As of the daytime close, domestic base metals were mostly lower, with SHFE copper being the sole gainer, rising 0.56%. All other metals declined, though losses were contained within 1%. The primary alumina contract fell 1.16%, while the primary foundry aluminum contract dropped 0.91%. Furthermore, the primary lithium carbonate contract decreased by 4.13%, the primary silicon metal contract edged down 0.18%, and the primary polysilicon contract fell 3.78%. The primary Europe container freight contract rose 3.01% to 2036.
In the ferrous sector, prices were broadly lower, with only stainless steel finishing in positive territory, gaining 0.39%. Iron ore declined by 2.53%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil saw minor fluctuations. In the coking sector, coking coal dropped 3.19% and coke fell 0.66%.
Overseas, as of 15:06 Beijing time, base metals were predominantly lower, with only LME zinc posting a slight increase of 0.09%. LME tin led the declines, falling 1.61%, while losses for other metals were all under 1%.
In the precious metals space, as of 15:06, COMEX gold declined 0.87% and COMEX silver fell 1.97%. Domestically, SHFE gold decreased by 0.54%, while SHFE silver increased by 0.41%. Additionally, the primary platinum contract dropped 1.32%, and the primary palladium contract rose 1.1%.
**Macro Developments (Domestic as of 15:06):** Concentrated policy efforts are leading to a gradual annual improvement in the development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). An assessment report on the SME development environment for 2025 was released today, evaluating 50 typical cities based on indicators including market environment, legal environment, financing environment, innovation environment, and policy environment. The results indicate a general yearly improvement in China's SME development environment, with a narrowing gap between cities and regions, accelerated removal of market access barriers, continued deepening of the national unified market, and a gradual increase in regional development balance. Survey data shows the overall satisfaction rating of SMEs with the development environment has risen from 74.60 points in 2020 to 84.54 points in 2025. Focused policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations are yielding continuous results in optimizing the SME development environment.
The People's Bank of China conducted a 5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today. With 5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, the operation resulted in a net zero injection or withdrawal for the day.
The USD/CNY central parity rate was set at 6.8649 on April 9.
**USD and Related Views:** As of 15:06, the U.S. dollar index was down 0.01% at 99.03. Asset management firm Nuveen, in a quarterly outlook report, suggested that negative supply shocks are unwelcome for central banks, but the overall outlook remains sufficiently solid for them to stay focused on domestic factors. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2026, "though risks lean towards a slower pace, with the second cut potentially delayed until 2027." Nuveen also indicated the Bank of Japan might raise rates at least once more in 2026, while the European Central Bank could pivot towards rate hikes before year-end.
Analysts at First Citizens Bank stated that Friday's upcoming U.S. CPI data is expected to be the first to substantially reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock, with headline inflation accelerating driven by surging energy costs. The bank's Head of Market and Economic Research noted, "As the impact on core inflation is more moderate, albeit still significantly above target, the Fed will currently 'look through' the energy-driven inflation spike." He suggested this would reinforce the Fed's stance of holding rates steady for an extended period and tightly link potential rate cuts to a normalization of energy prices.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in April is 1.6%, with a 98.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by June is 1.7%, versus a 96.8% chance of unchanged rates and a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike.
**Key Data and Events Ahead:** Today's data releases include U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4, the U.S. February core PCE price index annual rate, U.S. February personal spending month-on-month, the final U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the final U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the U.S. February core PCE price index month-on-month, U.S. February wholesale sales month-on-month, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the period ending April 9, Germany's February seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, and Germany's February seasonally adjusted trade balance.
Additionally, market participants will monitor the release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, a speech on the economy and monetary policy by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and remarks by Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan.
**Crude Oil Market:** As of 15:06, oil prices advanced in both major benchmarks. WTI crude rose 3.42% and Brent crude gained 2.5%. Support stemmed from investor concerns that Middle Eastern crude supplies may not fully recover. Analysts from Standard Chartered's Energy and Metals Research team noted in a report that a two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement might offer limited assistance to energy supplies. They suggested that security worries, high insurance premiums, and operational constraints mean additional energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz might be minimal, with LNG cargoes being a potential exception given recent indications of loaded vessels ready for short-notice departure. While prices dipped on the ceasefire news, the team argued this rapid pullback might prove excessive. They forecast an average Q2 Brent price of $98.00 per barrel and an average WTI price of $92.50 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs revised its Q2 price forecasts for Brent crude down to $90/barrel and for WTI down to $87/barrel, citing a reduction in near-term risk premium on the oil curve and a gradual increase in oil flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The bank maintained its Q3 and Q4 2026 price forecasts unchanged at $82/barrel and $80/barrel for Brent, and $77/barrel and $75/barrel for WTI, respectively.
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